DUBAI — Offering a glimpse into humanity’s next 100 years, Dr George Friedman, Founder and Chairman of Geopolitical Futures, a geopolitical forecasting service, said that the 21st century will be humanity’s most dramatic, and one that will bring unprecedented levels of opportunities and risks.
He recounted instances from world history over the past 70 years, since the end of World War II to offer perspective on significant changes one can expect in the decades to come. Nationalism was one of the main contributors to the devastation caused during the period from 1914 till 1945, and the world resolved to put measures in place to prevent being driven by this sentiment.
Delivering his address themed ‘The Next 100 Years: Exploring Scenarios for Government’ on Day 2 of the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai, Dr Friedman said that the events of 2008 leading to the financial crisis of Europe and the Russian attack on Georgia started the end of the current era.
While many nations faced a rise in unemployment rates to over 20 percent, only certain segments of society felt the impact. Ironically, the bracket of technocrats, who were largely responsible for the failure of the system, went relatively untouched.
The masses that were affected mainly fell back on the state, which protected them and their interests. Consequently, the sense of nationalism grew stronger within Europe, while the feeling of reassurance that being part of the European Union would protect EU nationals weakened considerably – especially in the cases of Greek and Spanish citizens, who were faced by failing economies.
In addition, the Russian attack on Georgia showed the ineffectiveness of the peace-keeping efforts of multi-lateral organizations in the region. The events have led to a re-emergence of nationalistic sentiments, which set the tone for the changes that the world will witness in the years to come.
Dr Friedman said: “Think of a world which is more like the 19th century than the 20th century. For 70 years, it was one way and now it is going to be another for the rest of the decade. In the end, there has to be a community that binds us together, a language, a religion, a history – and this is our nation. You must be allowed to control your fate in a democratic way and, in the end, your job is not to satisfy anyone else but yourself.”
He went on to emphasize that while trade alliances and international relations will continue, they will not be ‘hard-wired’ automatically into the systems or be permanent. Leaders that emerge will challenge the norm.
Explaining the context around the Brexit crisis and the election of Donald Trump, where people seemed to be isolated from the contrarian viewpoint, he added: “There was a time when you would know people from different classes. It is very difficult to imagine a time like this one, when there is so little interchange between the two. This means that there will be substantial internal instability in countries. It will not rip the countries apart, but it will be tangible.”
In his concluding remarks, he mentioned that countries will emerge, fall, and remain in place. He said: “What we have seen is the end of the myth, which is two things: one, that multi-lateral institutions will solve all our problems, and two, do not look at the overall GDP, see how the GDP is distributed because that will tell you what the future looks like.”
Born in Hungary in 1949, Friedman survived the horrors of World War II and grew up in a devastated Europe. In an effort to escape communism, his family fled to a refugee camp in Austria before immigrating to the United States. Driven by a keen interest to discover the principles that govern the world, Friedman received his PhD in Government from Cornell University, granting him access to some of the most brilliant thinkers in the field.
His unmatched geopolitical analysis has led to him regularly being called upon to brief military organizations and consult for Fortune 100 executives.
Witnessing the need to bring geopolitical forecasting to a wider audience, George Friedman has authored several New York Times bestsellers including ‘The Next 100 Years’. He also founded the geopolitical intelligence consulting firm Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) in 1996.
