TURKEY made its first formal approach to join the European Union thirty years ago under the reformist premier Turgut Özal. Özal opened up his country for foreign investment and began the demolishing of the state-controlled industries which had been built up after Ataturk founded the Republic in 1923. Until then the country had sought to be self-sufficient. Pick up most any manufactured good in the 1970s and it would have “Türk imal” stamped on it somewhere.

The quality of these products was not always of the highest — an automobile called the “Anadolu” rivaled East Germany’s “Trabant” for the title of the world’s worst motorcar.

But what this independent manufacturing demonstrated was that Turkey possessed the capacity and indeed the will to become a potent economic power. And as Özal welcomed foreign investment, embarked on widespread privatization, including selling off the first Bosphorus Bridge to the public, it was clear to the Europeans that Turkey was going to be an attractive market as well as an effective partner.

Turkey also benefitted from a trading agreement with the old European Economic Community. This had been put in place in part because of the crucial role that Turkish gastarbeiter — guest workers — played particularly in the German car industry. In textiles and white goods Turkey has now become a leading international player. The chances are that your kitchen stove, fridge or freezer were made in Turkey even though they carry famous international brands.

The British were the biggest backers for Turkish EU membership. The Germans and Dutch appeared in favor and the Italians — whose style and culture the Turks have long admired — seemed equally supportive. Only the French were reserved. In the early 1990s an eminent Turkish banker was at a dinner in Brussels, when a French banker brought an awkward halt to the conversation at their table after he said that of course Turkey could never be part of Europe because it did not share its Christian values.

Accession talks between Ankara and Brussels have dragged on for years with the EU raising issues such as human rights, freedom of the press and the transparency of commercial law. One initial concern was also political stability. The Turkish military, which saw itself as protector of the secular Kemalist republic, has three times overthrown parliament democracy in the name of public order.

But under the moderate Islamist leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the teeth of the military have been pulled. Erdogan has proved a remarkable politician but his increasingly authoritarian style has polarized his own people. And even before last year’s failed coup, Erdogan had torn up of his own peace deal with the Kurds, which had earned him international kudos and begun to exert pressure against, political and media dissent.

Since the coup, his substantial clampdown on political opponents and his muzzling of the press have played into the hands of those in the EU who never wanted Turkey to join. Erdogan has now challenged Brussels to abandon accession talks with Ankara. It is likely that if Angela Merkel wins the German election at the end of the month, that this is precisely what will happen. Overnight, the future for NATO-member Turkey will look very different. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Erdogan will look for a considerably closer relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.