Saudi Gazette

TOULOUSE – The Middle East has witnessed the most growth in airline capacity growth compared to other regions in the world in recent years, according to Airbus’s latest Global Market Forecast report.

Passenger traffic to from and within the Middle East will grow 5.9% annually until 2036, well above the global average of 4.4%, an Airbus executive told reporters. Such growth prompts fleet demand valued at $600 billion from a total market value $5.3 trillion.

Last month, the Middle East’s growth in passengers reached 6.5%, outpacing Western Europe and the US that are at 5.4% and 2.6% respectively.

For the Middle East, the highest traffic growth in the next decade will be inter-regional, at 6.0%, rather than domestic flows.

“With its convenient location, four-hour flight time from the Middle East covers 40% of the world’s population,” said Bob Lange, vice president of market strategy at Airbus. “8 hours flying time covers 87% of the world’s population, which is 84% of the world’s GDP. And 16 hours, the longest range for wide-bodies, covers 100% of the world population, the total world’s GDP.”

As economic growth is expected to increase by 3.4% in the next 20 years, travel will increase significantly. Traffic between emerging markets are to represent a higher share of world traffic, 40%, by 2036.

“The importance of the Middle East as a hub is primordial in that growth,” said Lange. “The potential of Middle East economies to move away from traditional sources of revenues towards trade, tourism, manufacturing and commerce will continue. As there’s a steady growth of population, GDP per capita will increase. People will continue to fly more often than in previous years.”

Other factors include growth of private consumption, the increase in number of seats traveling through the region, and hub development strategies.

The fleet size of operators in the Middle East is projected to more than double from 1,250 to 3,320 aircraft over the next two decades. While 730 aircraft are expected to remain in service over the period, the region will need some 2,590 new aircraft. This demand includes 1,080 for twin-aisle aircraft, with also 1,080 single-aisle aircraft, and 430 very large aircraft such as the wide-body aircraft.

Airbus revealed the current orders from Middle East-based carriers stand at 1,319 aircraft, of which 687 are single-aisle, 409 twin-aisle and 162 very large aircraft.

The low-cost carrier market is an emerging trend in the aviation industry, Lange further said.

The low cost carrier market penetration increased significantly from 12% to 26% this year and has the highest demand among aircrafts.

In the Middle East in particular, demand for low-cost-carrier seats reached 4 million last year, multiplying to16 times in the last decade with the liberalization of markets and people’s access to affordable air travel.

Low cost carriers’ average capacity reached 165 per flight last year compared to average single-aisle aircraft that reached 156. Moreover, 10 out of 30 of the largest airlines in the world have a low cost carrier in their group.