Why did the highly conservative state of Alabama go against its deep-set political grain and reject the Republican candidate Roy Moore in favor of his Democrat rival for a US Senate seat?

Did Moore’s rival, Doug Jones, win as part of a rising tide of opposition to Republican President Donald Trump or because Alabama voters were repelled by allegations that Moore, a former judge, had been guilty of sexual misconduct with teenage girls? It is interesting that in the final stages of the campaign, the Republican party establishment, which had originally distanced itself from Moore, held its collective nose to give him its support. It was not difficult to see why. The GOP had a two-vote majority in the Senate, now cut to one.

As voters went to the polls on Tuesday there was still considerable confidence that Moore would win, as no Democrat has held an Alabama Senate seat for a quarter of a century. One cause of this was the skepticism among many electors at the tide of allegations of sexual impropriety that has gripped the United States in recent months. The point was made that though some of the accused admitted their offense, the careers and reputations of others were being destroyed before they could defend themselves in a court of law. There was also a suspicion that since the wider country was going through another “Witches of Salem” and “Reds under the Bed” episode, a mere assertion of wrongdoing was being taken as proof positive.

Moore always rejected the allegations, though some statements he made in his defense were contradictory, for instance first denying and then later admitting that he knew some of his accusers.

The final vote was very close, though not so close as to trigger an automatic recount. But even though Moore was refusing to concede, President Trump, who had gone out of his way to back the Republican candidate, was tweeting that he accepted that Moore had lost.

Now the analysts are asking if it was Trump and his backing for Moore, rather than the salacious allegations about the judge’s conduct with young women, that cost the GOP the Alabama Senate seat. Indeed, allegations of sexual impropriety continue to be made against Trump himself. Given that their visceral hatred of their elected president has caused his Democrat opponents to accuse him of absolutely every sort of crime and misdemeanor, allegations of Trump’s past misbehavior with women have been rather swamped.

Yet the Moore defeat has served to bring this particular hue and cry back into the field. Democrats who hate Trump to the point of being unhinged may sense a new opportunity. Is it actually possible that Alabama, where Trump and his conservative and anti-political correctness views have long been extremely popular, is beginning to doubt the President? Were this to be the case, then Roy Moore’s rejection by the voters could mark a seismic shift in Trump’s core support.

If that is also the final analysis of the Republican party’s leadership then suddenly the President’s hard-won Congressional tax victory and his future plans to work with legislators to drive through other key parts of his agenda must suddenly be in doubt. The GOP and Trump have never really trusted each other. Roy Moore’s Alabama loss may trigger a breakdown in whatever little trust remains.