JEDDAH — The overall US solar market is expected to fall 22% on an annual basis in 2017, primarily driven by the decline in utility PV deployment relative to the utility PV pipeline build-out in 2016, GTM Research said in its “US Solar Market Insight” report in Q4 2017.

DG (distributed solar) markets, however, have a slightly different path. Residential PV (photovoltaics) is expected to fall 16% annually primarily due to weakness across major state markets, many of which are experiencing year-over-year decline for the first time ever. Despite relative near-term policy certainty, the industry is experiencing the impact of national installers scaling back operations to focus on higher

margin geographies, in addition to an increasingly challenging customer-acquisition landscape.

Conversely, non-residential PV markets are expected to grow 17% as developers seek to complete

installations ahead of regulatory changes in California, Massachusetts and New York, while Minnesota’s healthy community solar pipeline comes to fruition. Despite build-out falling on an annual basis, the utility PV segment is still expected to see over 7.6 GWdc in 2017 – nearly double what was installed in 2015 – as ITC spillover drives significant utility PV deployment.

In 2018, residential PV is expected to rebound at a limited pace as major market installers seek to

find more efficient means of customer acquisition and large national players reorient their sales strategies, while emerging state markets begin to contribute a growing share of the residential market.

However, 2018 marks the year in which the non-residential market will begin to feel the effects of regulatory and policy constraints that will lead to an annual decline in non-residential deployment. Though 2018 will stand as a relatively low installation year for utility PV, project origination will benefit the post-2019 outlook as procurement mechanisms outside of renewable portfolio standards drive an increasing majority of the market.

By 2019, US solar is expected to resume year-over-year growth across all market segments. And

by 2022, 29 states in the US will be 100+ MWdc annual solar markets, with 25 of those states being

home to more than 1 GWdc of operating solar PV.

However, downside risk looms over the long-term outlook for US solar, due to the trade

dispute initiated by the domestic-based cell and module manufacturer Suniva, later joined by

SolarWorld. As mentioned, S ITC commissioners have recommended a variety of relief

measures that would put non-exempt imports at a premium of $.10 to .12/W in year 1 compared to current baseline price expectations. — SG