US President George W. Bush and his neocon advisers knew what would become of Iraq once the US invaded that country and toppled Saddam Hussein. His successor Barack Obama was not under the influence of neocons and came to power on an anti-war platform. But what Obama, a Nobel Peace laureate, did to Libya is no different from what Bush did to Iraq.
If destroying Saddam’s non-existing weapons of mass destruction was the stated aim of the Iraqi invasion, the US and its allies intervened in Libya to prevent long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi from “slaughtering tens of thousands of innocent civilians” in Benghazi, the country’s second largest city.
Utter chaos has been the outcome in both cases. Libya, like Iraq, has known neither peace nor stability after a 2011 uprising backed by a US-led Western campaign toppled Qaddafi and splintered the country.
How fragile security in that country was brought home last Thursday when rockets hit Libya’s main airport and damaged a plane as it was waiting to take off. By design or accident, all this happened just as the United Nations envoy Ghassan Salame and French Ambassador Brigitte Curmi were visiting the capital to discuss a peace plan.
Tripoli has been under the control of a patchwork of armed groups since 2011. Most diplomatic missions operate from neighboring Tunisia as two governments, one of them recognized by the UN, are jockeying for power. The UN launched a new round of talks in September in Tunis between the rival factions to prepare for presidential and parliamentary elections in 2018 but no accord could be reached.
After six years of direct involvement in Libya, with six consecutive special envoys, the UN still has not been able to end violence and help stabilize the country.
The fault is not entirely that of the world body. The UN’s work has been made difficult by Libyan factions locked in the conflict and showing no willingness, so far, to compromise. These factions continue to indulge in a catastrophic self-destructive course in which they both believe they can achieve outright victory over their rivals.
Outside interference which sometimes take the form of increased military involvement by Western or neighboring countries have also frustrated UN efforts. The US has carried out at least four known air strikes in Libya since 2015. The latest one, in January, targeted an alleged training camp on the outskirts of Sirte where some Daesh (the so-called IS) militants had fled after the city fell. The UK and France also have special forces operating in Libya though the nature and extent of these operations remain largely secretive. Three French soldiers died in July 2016 when their helicopter was shot down by militiamen belonging to a new group called Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB).
Will Salame succeed where others have failed?
He has announced an action plan aimed at helping Libyans end their deeply polarized political and military conflict. He needs strong support from the international community, especially regional countries who have been taking sides in the dispute.
His task has been made even more difficult by the absence, from Libya, of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, commander of the self-styled Libyan National Army. According to reports, he is seriously ill and undergoing treatment in a hospital near Paris. The 75-year-old strongman who controls most of eastern Libya including some of the country’s largest oil fields has won the backing of some regional and Western countries because of his fight against terrorism. His opposition is one reason why UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), set up in Tripoli in 2016, still lacks legitimacy and effectiveness. He is deeply polarizing because of his authoritarian views. Many think Haftar’s disappearance from the scene would inject a new element of uncertainty into the scene but would also provide fresh opportunities for peacemaking. Salame’s success will depend, to a large extent, on how he handles the new situation.
