Opinion

US withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal sparks diplomatic frenzy in Europe

May 19, 2018
US withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal sparks diplomatic frenzy in Europe

DR. Cyril Widdershoven

US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran has not only put the global oil market under pressure, increasing the possibilities of increased tension in the region, but has also put European leaders in the corner. Even though Washington’s decision to tear up the Iran nuclear deal has been expected since Trump’s election, European governments and the European Union seem to be taken by surprise.

The threat of severe new US sanctions on Iran was already factored in by several sectors, such as financials and oil and gas, but the implementation of new and harsh sanctions on European or Asian companies still dealing with Iran has been a major slap in the face of US Western allies. At least that is what the media and government officials are saying in London, Berlin, Paris and The Hague. The risk of being confronted by US sanctions on the financing, operating and supply contracts of its Western allies was not at all expected.

The lack of geopolitical knowledge in Europe is flabbergasting. Brussels and its members seem to have been looking at the JCPOA only from the nuclear angle, while most regional parties, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, always have warned Europeans that Iran’s ongoing power projections in the region are being supported by the removal of UN and EU sanctions. It seems time for European leaders to wake up and address these issues with all regional parties, not only the US and Israel, but including the main power brokers in the Arab world.

Iran already is trying to salvage the JCPOA agreement, as it is seen as one of the backbones of the current extremist regime in Tehran. In addition to recently visiting China, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Russia, its main ally in Syria, and European countries. Tehran is actively pursuing a strategy to take European leaders out of the US-block, not only to block a deteriorating situation for its own economy but also to weaken Washington and Saudi Arabia’s position. Tehran still wants to have the deal in place, as it needs European financial and technical support to keep its economy at least at the same level. For the future of its oil, gas and other pivotal sectors, it will need full European support. As the nuclear deal was signed between Iran and six countries in 2015 - US, Britain, Germany, Russia, France and China - Tehran’s steps are clear.

European countries at present are faced with a fait accompli. With the fact that the US market is much more important for European companies than Iran, the choice is clear. Still, European companies, such as Airbus and others, have already signed contracts worth billions of dollars with Iran. Trade between Iran and Europe has increased exponentially, led by French, German and British parties. The opposition within Europe towards the Trump decision has been largely based on simple economics, but it is full of holes.

Opportunities in the Arab world are much greater than the future in Iran. At the same time, Arab countries hold large assets and investments in the EU and Arab sovereign wealth funds are leading real estate investors in main European capitals. An economic assessment should be clear and easy - support Trump as it otherwise will be costly. A possible move by Brussels to introduce measures to nullify the effect of the US imposing sanctions on any non-US firm that continues to do business with Iran is not the right move and most probably legally is not even an option.

Europe also should be addressing the main reason behind the Trump decision. Iran’s ongoing power projections in the Arab world, its support of terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, while openly supporting Assad’s regime in Syria, should be the main factors involved in revoking any deal with Iran. By removing the sanctions in 2015, Iran received the financial means to support its dreams.

A strategic move by Europe will not happen without an active Arab lobbying effort. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo, should set up straightaway a diplomatic offensive to inform European leaders of their thoughts and fears. By addressing this at the highest level, as the Iranians are doing, a possible solution could be found to move Brussels and its members to a more rational regional geopolitical position. This point needs to be made and the same diplomatic efforts should be put in place with regards to Europe than has been done in Washington, Moscow or Beijing lately. It is now time for direct dialogue between the Riyadh-Cairo-Abu Dhabi axis and Brussels. At the same time, a face-to-face meeting in several European capitals, including The Hague, Berlin and Rome, is a necessity. Arab countries should understand that high flyers such as London and Paris are at present not ruling their European partners.

Dr. Cyril Widdershoven is director of Dutch consultancy VEROCY. He is a long-time observer of the Middle East, energy and geopolitics, holding degrees in Middle Eastern Studies and War Studies. He has been working and living in the region for over 25 years, working for international governments and consultancies in the MENA region.


May 19, 2018
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