By Maria Abi-Habib

and Salman Masood

THE phone calls started last month, said Rana Iqbal Siraj: intimidating, anonymous demands that he defect from the party that governed Pakistan for the past five years and tried to curb the power of the military. Soon, he was summoned by state security officials who delivered the same message. Siraj, a candidate for the legislature in Punjab Province, stayed with his party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), which was built decades ago around former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Then in June, roughly a month before Election Day, security officials raided his business at the behest of the military, Siraj said in an interview.

“They are trying to ruin me financially by raiding my warehouse and beating my staff,” he said, adding that he was considering moving his family abroad for their safety. “What am I at fault for? Just because I’m running on the PML-N ticket?”

Siraj and fellow party members said the aim of the raid was to weaken the former governing party’s chances by forcing its candidates to defect ahead of national elections on Wednesday that are shaping up to be a referendum on the military and its interference in Pakistan’s democracy.

That military campaign has been likened by some candidates to a soft coup, and has included sidelining candidates who are out of the military’s favor, censoring major news outlets and persecuting peaceful political movements.


The most likely beneficiary of the military’s manipulation is the party led by the former cricket star Imran Khan, who has called the Taliban’s war against the United States military in Afghanistan justified, and is seen as the military’s favored candidate — a notion he denies. Khan has positioned himself as a fighter against corruption, taking aim at the dynastic politics and nepotism of parties like the PML-N while maintaining a good relationship with the military, which he credits with protecting the country.

The military has ruled Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country, through various coups for nearly half the country’s history since it gained independence in 1947. Even during civilian rule, the country’s generals have wielded enormous power, setting the agenda for the country’s foreign and security policies and tolerance of extremist groups — including the Afghan Taliban in its fight against the United States-backed government in Afghanistan next door.

As prime minister, Sharif ran afoul of the military early on by trying to assert control over foreign and defense policy, which is seen as the army’s domain. He also tried to improve ties with India, Pakistan’s archrival, and opposed the military’s embrace of terrorist groups, members of his party say.

In Wednesday’s election, voters will choose provincial legislatures and the country’s Parliament, which will appoint the next prime minister. Officially, it will be only the second democratic transition between civilian governments in the Pakistan’s history, after the last election in 2013.

The PML-N accuses the army of pressuring the country’s courts to disqualify its top candidates, including Sharif, who was sentenced to prison this month. At the same time, some candidates who are on the government’s terrorism watch list have been cleared to run.

Khan maintains that while he has a productive relationship with the military, he is not receiving any help from it. Candidates are joining his centrist party because they are fed up with traditional parties that have failed to deliver, he said.

“When you have poor-quality leadership without the moral standing, you have a void and someone will always fill it,” Khan said in an interview at his home in Islamabad, referring to the military’s track record of coups and political interference.

The PTI is popular with voters under 35 who are hungry for change and make up 43 percent of the electorate.

Although Khan has a good chance of becoming prime minister, the military is likely to insist on curbing the next government’s ability to shape defense and foreign policy, risking Pakistan’s further international isolation.

“The question the whole nation is asking is what does the army want and why this level of interference?” said Ahmed Rasheed, a foreign-policy analyst and author.

Like others interviewed, Rasheed said he believed the military wanted a weak government, with the PTI at the helm of an unwieldy alliance in Parliament.

While the PML-N, which held a super majority in the last parliament, may win the most votes, it will struggle to form a government if the military pressures potential coalition partners. Analysts say Khan’s party is likely to be able to form the next government by cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties and independents.

But the military risks a severe backlash, Rasheed said, in part because social media has increased scrutiny of an institution once seen as sacrosanct.

“For the first time, not just the elite, but the public is now aware of the army’s major role,” Rasheed said. “It’s now talked about at the village level.” — The New York Times