Opinion

Sri Lanka’s political crisis

November 05, 2018

Nobody knows when the Sri Lankan Parliament will reconvene to put an end to the uncertainty regarding the prime minister of the country. For a brief moment on Thursday, it appeared that the 225-member legislature would resume sessions on Monday or Wednesday. There were reports that Speaker Karu Jayasuriya had decided to summon Parliament on Wednesday, defying the president’s decision. Now we are told that Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena will keep Parliament shut until Nov. 16 in line with his initial order.

Parliament was suspended by the president on Oct. 26 soon after he sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, while he was away from the capital, and hurriedly swore in Mahinda Rajapaksa, opposition leader and former president, as his replacement.

The presidency remains the most powerful office in Sri Lanka but legally the president cannot dismiss a prime minister unless he has lost the confidence of the assembly.

The very fact that Sirisena suspended Parliament for two weeks has fueled suspicion that this is to help Rajapaksa muster enough support to survive any no-confidence vote. Five legislators from Wickremesinghe’s party have already defected to Rajapaksa.

Wickremesinghe who claims he still enjoys the majority support in the House has refused to vacate his official residence, Temple Trees, declaring that he continues to be the prime minister constitutionally. With one man refusing to leave office and another officially in power, there are now two competing power centers, as in Libya.

Naturally, this has created fears of a political crisis. Hence the increasing pressure on Sirisena from his political opponents, rights groups and foreign governments including the US to summon Parliament to put an end to the stand-off between Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa and possible clashes between rival groups. The dispute took a deadly turn last week when those loyal to the president swarmed a minister who had been ousted with Wickremesinghe. The minister’s bodyguard opened fire, killing one person.

Adding to the anxieties of Sri Lankans and their friends are reports saying that even if Parliament reconvenes, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) — a coalition between the parties of Sirisena and Rajapaksa’s — will not hold a confidence vote and allow legislators to choose between the two leaders claiming the prime minister’s role.

Now even if a confidence vote settles the question of who is the prime minister one way or the other, Sri Lanka’s political crisis is likely to continue. If Wickremesinghe wins the backing of a majority, there will be a period of uneasy coexistence with the president and his prime minister pulling in opposite directions. Sirisena’s problems will be worse if his chosen nominee is confirmed as prime minister.

Sirisena was health minister in Rajapaksa’s Cabinet and the second-in-command of his party before defecting to run as the opposition candidate in a presidential election called two years ahead of schedule. Rajapaksa was defeated at the 2015 elections when Wickremesinghe and Sirisena formed an unlikely coalition, and their government initiated several investigations into alleged Rajapaksa-era crimes.

Although Rajapaksa’s decade in power was marred by allegations of authoritarianism, corruption and human rights abuses, he has won a place in Sri Lankan history as the man who slayed the Tigers. Once confirmed as prime minister, he is likely to assert his authority and prove a headache to his boss.

If reports coming in from Sri Lanka are true, Rajapaksa is most likely to call for a snap election. UPFA is likely to fight the election with Rajapaksa as the presidential candidate. Human rights groups and Tamils may not like Rajapaksa’s return to power. But he happens to be the most popular politician in Sri Lanka. This means Sirisena should be wary of treating him the way he did Wickremesinghe.


November 05, 2018
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