Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expressing hope that come Sunday he won’t need to call for early elections. He will instead reportedly try to stabilize his government on that day, at the weekly cabinet meeting. However, it is almost impossible for the coalition to function with only a one-seat majority, which it was left with after Avigdor Lieberman resigned as defense minister.
Lieberman’s withdrawal of his right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu Party from the prime minister’s ruling coalition left Netanyahu with a bare minimum 61-seat coalition, not enough seats to topple the government on his own, but enough to allow other parties to make demands of the Israeli leader. On cue entered right-wing Education Minister Naftali Bennett, leader of the right-wing Jewish Home Party, demanding the defense portfolio and promising to quit the government if he didn’t get it. Netanyahu refused Bennett’s request, deciding to keep the three jobs of defense, foreign and prime minister – a banana republic if ever there was one. Be that as it may, Lieberman’s withdrawal from the coalition and Bennett’s threat to do likewise would leave Netanyahu unable to govern, making elections inevitable.
Lieberman resigned from Netanyahu’s cabinet in protest against the latest cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. Lieberman felt Netanyahu was being too soft on Hamas. Maybe Lieberman wanted another bloodbath like that of 2014 when the 50-day Gaza war killed over 2,300 Palestinians. At any rate, one may reasonably assume that Lieberman’s resignation is primarily about politics. If elections are indeed approaching, he wants to be seen as someone who did not surrender to Hamas. Lieberman understands that casting Netanyahu as a capitulator can be exploited for his own purposes.
But Netanyahu is the most seasoned politician in Israel today. He has a record that no Israeli prime minister ever had, with the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the moving of the US embassy to Jerusalem and America pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement padding his CV. It’s going to be very difficult for anybody to challenge him. Lieberman, Bennett and others are taking a risk and could be making a big mistake if they do call for early elections because Netanyahu could come back, even stronger. Even though political turbulence swirls around Netanyahu and although he faces criminal investigations that pack enough evidence to indict him on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, the investigations have barely dented Netanyahu’s standing in the polls or his popularity. If anything, polls have repeatedly projected that Netanyahu’s Likud Party would actually increase its number of seats if early elections were held.
One big reason for Netanyahu’s enduring popularity with Israelis is that from the moment he first took office in 1996, he has been determined to prevent the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Netanyahu sees this as a historic mission. In his land of Israel, Jewish sovereignty is the only possible sovereignty, to the exclusion of any other. Netanyahu wants to continue the settlement enterprise and the creation of facts on the ground in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, hoping that in time there will be no other option than a state of Israel with sole and exclusive rule.
In this regard, Netanyahu has help from the Palestinians. As long as the two parts of the Palestinian body politic are separated from one another, the ability of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and Palestinians in general, to demand a state diminishes. The fact that today there are two separate governments operating in Gaza and the West Bank is a political goldmine for anyone wishing to derail any process that would lead to an independent Palestinian state. And Netanyahu is precisely that man.
It’s reasonable to assume that Lieberman’s resignation will prompt new elections, however, it might not bring to an end Netanyahu’s fourth administration which, until not long ago, seemed stable.
