Entering its 10th day, the demonstrations roiling Sudan have provided signs of an Arab Spring. What started out as protests after the government announced price rises for fuel and bread has morphed into broader calls for a change in the regime. In classic Arab Spring form, Sudan’s security forces have fired tear gas at protesters near the capital Khartoum. The government says 19 people have died during the anti-government protests but Amnesty International said 37 protesters have been shot dead.
The demonstrators are targeting the economy that has seen a currency devaluation that has spiked prices, created fuel shortages and a steep rise in the price of bread, the staple Sudanese food. All the while, salaries have not increased much, leading to widespread anger and frustration.
Sudan’s deep economic crisis began in 2011 after the southern half of the country voted to secede, leading to the formation of South Sudan which took with it three-quarters of the country’s oil output. Its economy has also been strained by over 20 years of US sanctions which were lifted in October 2017. Washington’s decision was influenced by Sudan’s improved human rights record and its co-operation in the fight against terror.
The government says only elections can induce regime change. If constitutional amendments are made, it seems likely that President Omar Al-Bashir will run again in the 2020 elections despite previous promises that this would be his last term. He has won several elections since taking power and could surprise yet again. But his next two years will be his most difficult. In January, Sudan was shaken by demonstrations triggered by high bread prices. But the recent protests that began on Dec. 19 appear to be more serious as curfews and states of emergency have been declared in several regions.
For decades, Sudan has had its hands full, fighting several rebellions in Darfur, the Blue Nile and South Kordofan, as well as the war with South Sudan before its secession. None have been settled satisfactorily as tensions have remained high. But today, the Sudanese government faces a challenge. With prices rising by the day, and growing anger about it, this is a difficult time for the Sudanese government. The numbers of the demonstrators and the casualty figures might not be enough to force a change in government but already the events have brought about change with the possibility of more to come.