Opinion

Perfect storm!

December 31, 2018
Perfect storm!

Hussein Shobokshi

A number of respected economists and financial analysts consider that what is happening now in different areas around the world is the beginning of a perfect storm in the global economy.

Citing the continued turmoil in the US stock market, General Motors has announced that it intends to shut down a number of its factories in the US and lay off a large number of employees. Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that 2019 could be catastrophic for the world economy with everyone fleeing and taking refuge.

Then there is the fact that the price of oil, a very important and influential commodity, has dropped dramatically in a very short period of time, indicating a large oversupply in world markets. This, of course, has negative implications for traditional oil producing countries and also for American oil producers. Some companies have stopped production because the price has fallen below the cost of production.

At the same time, the crisis in European economies continues, with unrest in France, which has spread to Belgium and the Netherlands, affecting economic stability. The debt crisis in Italy, the world’s eighth-largest economy, may explode at any time, which will have a negative impact on the global economy.

Britain’s economic situation is likely to further deteriorate because of the repercussions of the Brexit crisis and the consequences of failing to find a decent way for Britain to exit the European market.

Currency wars and protectionist policies are part of major global trade wars. China and India are both affected by this and their economic growth rates have declined. In addition, there is an unprecedented amount of public debt with countries exclusively relying on a policy of borrowing to secure economic growth, and this is creating what some have described as “the most dangerous bubble” in financial history.

In such economic circumstances, history tells us that countries tend to resort to increased military spending and war. Indeed, Japan has increased its spending on defense and has announced the inclusion of two aircraft carriers in its fleet for the first time in more than five decades to counter the “Chinese tide” in the region.

Meanwhile, the Chinese president has stated that “Taiwan’s reunification with China should be accelerated,” and there has been an increase in the level of tension between Ukraine and Russia.

On the political front, the confrontation continues between the American president and his opponents in the Democratic Party. In 2019, the Democrats will control the House of Representatives, which may lead to a disruption of important economic programs.

As all of these elements intertwine leading to anxiety and instability, we must prepare ourselves for the possibility of a perfect storm in the global economy.


December 31, 2018
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