Supporters of the protest movement in Hong Kong were elated when their candidates swept the recent municipal elections defeating central government candidates and causing severe embarrassment to Carrie Lam the provincial executive appointed by Beijing.

This news reminded me of the American writer George Friedman, who said that America’s strategy with China would not be direct confrontation, but would be rooted in the spirit of democracy and economic liberalism as opposed to the political weight of central decisions made in Beijing.

There are convictions (supported by statistics) that the dynamism that generated amazing creativity during the dualism of capitalist technology has shortened the time it takes for any state to develop, and thus to reach a respectable level of prosperity.

Britain took more than 58 years to double its national output (after 1780), the USA took 47 years to achieve the same (after 1840), Japan took 33 years to accomplish the same goal (after 1880), Indonesia took 17 years to accomplish the same goal (after 1965), South Korea took 13 years to accomplish the goal (after 1970) and finally China took ten years to achieve the required since 1978.

The growth in clear numbers and the narrow time gap to achieve it showed that the eight countries that are economically influential in East and Southeast Asia have not only experienced significant economic growth, but have also demonstrated that they can eliminate poverty.

In Indonesia, the proportion of people below the poverty line dropped from 58 percent in 1972 to 17 percent in 1982; in Malaysia, the proportion fell from 37 percent in 1973 to 14 percent in 1987 and in Thailand from 49 percent in 1962 to 26 percent in 1986. There was also a wide expansion in the human rights system, in the media, constitutional systems, freedom and democracy.

America is betting on the spread of liberal values ​​and the prosperity of the capitalist system, an important basket of promises that China cannot make with its totalitarian communist regime. Hong Kong, with its mobility and the “democratic” results of its election, is a rehearsal and a prelude to what America wants to achieve against China (just as it did with Taiwan, which was “part” of China but politically unlike it in any way).

The trade war is not the only ongoing confrontation between China and America today. There is a very important “political” movement taking place and it may determine China’s future “shape”. The battle is underway and China is fully aware of this. Repression by force will not be acceptable and Chinese patience with those who insist on their rights and democracy will not last long.