VOTING to elect new assemblies in five Indian states has kicked off. Polling is not taking place simultaneously in all the states. Only two, Punjab and Goa, went to polls on Saturday (Feb. 4) marking the start of a seven-phase process.
At stake are 690 seats in five states, which together account for more than160 million voters. The number of assembly segments varies from 40 for Goa to 403 for Uttar Pradesh, India›s biggest state. Polling in UP will begin on Saturday (Feb. 11) to be concluded on March 8. Results for all five states —Manipur (60 seats) and Uttarakhand (70 seats) are the other states — will be announced on March 11.
The BJP is in power only in two of the five states: The border state of Punjab (117 assembly constituencies) where it shares power as a junior partner with a regional party, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Goa. In Uttarakhand and Manipur, the Congress is seeking re-election.
In Uttar Pradesh, a bellwether state of 200 million people that sends more representatives to the national parliament than any other region, both the national parties are in opposition. A good showing in Uttar Pradesh is vital for the BJP that did poorly in the 2012 legislative elections though it swept the parliamentary elections more than two years ago, winning 70 of the 80 seats. With 200 million people, UP is about the size of France, Germany, and the Benelux nations combined. But the BJP, unlike its rivals Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, another regional outfit, has not even projected a chief ministerial candidate and is running its campaign with Prime Minister Modi as the chief mascot. The fact that the SP has entered into an electoral alliance with the Congress makes things more difficult for the BJP than was the case in 2012.
The crucial state elections come barely after the exact midterm (two-and-a-half years) of the Modi government at the center. Though state elections are often contested on local issues, the ruling BJP is taking no chances because they and their opponents know these elections will gauge the popularity of Modi in the wake of his controversial demonetization move. These state polls will be the first political test following Modi’s overnight move on Nov. 8. to outlaw higher denomination bank notes and invalidate 86 percent of India’s circulated currency. As such, the polls are billed by many experts as a potential “semifinal” for the 2019 general parliamentary elections. The demonetization which BJP claims is part of anti-corruption drive has dented economic growth and forced millions into lengthy bank queues. “America counts votes as India counts notes,” was the headline the English daily The Times of India gave to Modi›s Nov. 8 decision. One can very well imagine what would happen when a government abruptly scraps a major part of its currency without any warning or preparation.
Shocked citizens were given only a few weeks› notice to take their cash and turn it in at a bank for new bills. But there was a limit to how much cash one can convert for new bills just as there were restrictions on how much money one can draw from the ATMs (4,000 currently and 2000 rupees in the initial stages). The economic and social upheaval was compounded by the fact that the government didn›t print a sufficient amount of the new bills. The new bills are also a different size than the old ones, creating a huge problem with ATMs. Another problem was the new 2,000 rupee bills. Nobody is ready to accept the 2,000 rupee notes for small purchases. The situation has now eased. But the question is whether things have improved to the extent that people have forgotten all the inconveniences and difficulties they had been through. Will the state elections prove a referendum on the demonetization?
Indians will know the answers on March 11.
