AMERICA is facing the toughest challenge in its longest war: The likelihood of Taleban capturing the Helmand province in southern Afghanistan. After a string of gains in recent weeks, America's adversaries are tightening their noose around Lashkar Gah, the capital of a province which is strategically important for both the Kabul government and the insurgents. Lashkar Gah, if at all it falls, would be the second provincial capital Taleban seizes after their regime was toppled in a US-led invasion in 2001.
The question is not whether Helmand can resist an onslaught by Taleban and how long, but whether Afghanistan would know security and stability even if Helmand manages to avoid the fate of Kunduz, which insurgents captured last October before being driven out by US-backed Afghan troops. The fact is, 15 years after the US invasion, this South Asian nation remains a violently contested and unsettled land. Nicholas Haysom, the special representative of the UN secretary-general, recently painted a very grim picture of the situation in Afghanistan, where conflict has grown in intensity and scope, presenting critical challenges to security forces.
There has been a steady rise in security-related incidents in 2015 compared to 2014, and security is deteriorating even in areas that have never been under the sway of Taleban. Insurgents have undoubtedly expanded their territorial reach over the past year. According to a recent UN report, Taleban are spread through more of Afghanistan than at any point since 2001 when they were toppled from power. They now control more territory than in any year since 2001, with the UN estimating that nearly half of all districts across Afghanistan are at risk of falling. All but two of Helmand’s 14 districts are effectively controlled or heavily contested by Taleban. By any reckoning, 2015 was a bloody year for Afghanistan, with a resurgent Taleban killing or wounding an estimated 16,000 soldiers and policemen.
Just like the Vietcong in Vietnam, the Taleban strongly feel that they will eventually wear out any government in Kabul.
And the government in Kabul is no match to Taleban either in popular appeal or battlefield prowess. High levels of corruption and chronic inefficiency has damaged the image of the National Unity Government (NUG) of President Ashraf Ghani and his chief executive officer and rival Abdullah Abdullah, which was created in the wake of a highly contested presidential election in 2014. Abdullah's outburst against Ghani on Thursday makes it clear that the government is neither national nor unity. Ghani, he said, is out of touch with the deteriorating situation in the country.
This means that while Taleban show a new vigor, the government in Kabul is yet to clean up its act. Government forces have suffered heavy casualties since taking over full responsibility for security after most foreign troops withdrew at the end of 2014. Then there is the problem of desertions because either the Afghan soldiers feel affinity with the Taleban or fear a takeover by the insurgents. Drone attacks by US may occasionally kill a top commander of Taleban or Daesh but that does not change the situation in favor of the Kabul government or its foreign backers.
The US State Department may call on the Taleban to come back to the negotiating table or “face the combined efforts of the Afghan security forces and their international partners.” But the war has reached such a stage that “the combined efforts” no longer frighten the Taleban. Even the superpower does not think much of “the combined efforts.” Otherwise, it would not ask the insurgents “to come back to the negotiating table.” So it time to think of an exit strategy that offers some face saving way out for both parties. What is needed is a political settlement that would allow the United States to disengage with its interests intact and allow Taleban to become a legitimate part of the political system of a sovereign united Afghanistan.
