IF the assembly elections in India’s five states were a litmus test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) banked on his popularity in its bid for power, the results, especially in Uttar Pradesh, show that he can approach the 2019 national elections with enough confidence to appear almost invincible.
The BJP won 73 out of UP’s 80 parliamentary seats in 2014. Confirming the worst fears of his opponents, it has replicated the 2014 performance and captured 325 seats in the 403-member state assembly.
In UP, a state that sends more representatives to the national parliament than any other region, both the national parties were in opposition. A regional group, Samajwadi Party, has been in power for a decade.
With 200 million people, UP is about the size of France, Germany, and the Benelux nations combined. A good showing in the state was vital for the BJP that did poorly in the 2012 assembly elections. But the BJP, unlike its rivals SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party, another regional outfit, did not even project a chief ministerial candidate and ran its campaign with Modi as the chief mascot.
The fact that the ruling SP has entered into an electoral alliance with Indian National Congress was supposed to make things more difficult for the BJP than was the case in 2012. What happened was just the reverse.
India’s largest state, UP often dictates politics in Delhi, by shaping the complexion of the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of Parliament) and by its strength in the Lok Sabha (lower house). Modi and his party have been saying that the opposition-dominated Rajya Sabha is preventing him following through on the ambitious economic and social agenda with which he swept to power in 2014. The victories in UP and Uttarakhand, another northern state where the BJP won a two-third majority, will help him overcome this obstacle.
These crucial state elections came barely after the exact midterm (two-and-a-half years) of the Modi government at the center. At stake were 690 seats in five states which together account for more than 160 million voters. The number of assembly segments varies from 40 for Goa to 403 for UP. Manipur (60 seats) and Uttarakhand (70 seats) and Punjab (117 seats) are the other states. The BJP was in power only in two of the five states: Punjab where it shared power as a junior partner with a regional party, the Shiromani Akali Dal and Goa. In Uttarakhand and Manipur, the Congress was seeking re-election. While the BJP lost Punjab to the Congress (the only consolation for India›s oldest party), the latter suffered a heavy defeat in Uttarakhand at the hands of BJP. Both BJP and Congress are staking claims to form governments in Goa and Manipur.
These state polls were the first political test following Modi’s overnight move on Nov. 8. to outlaw higher denomination bank notes and invalidate 86 percent of India’s circulated currency. As such, the polls were billed by many experts as a potential “semifinal” for the 2019 parliamentary elections. Voting began in February and the seven-phase process concluded on March 8.
Modi won the 2014 parliamentary elections promising “good days”. This remained just that — a promise. Then came his government’s decision to scrap 86 percent of the country’s banknotes, causing much hardship and inconvenience to the people.
If the BJP could still carry a state like UP with three-fourth majority, it speaks volumes for Modi’s charisma and popularity. And this is likely to do wonders for the BJP in 2019. That Modi won elections by saying and condoning things unbecoming of a prime minister (his references to Muslim graveyards and plentiful supply of electricity in Ramadan in contrast to frequent power cuts during Hindu holidays were calculated to inflame anti-Muslim passions) should mean that what is good for BJP may not necessarily be good for India.
