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Gen. Khalifa Haftar[/caption]
A WEEK ago Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan National Army, appointed by the country’s parliament was being written off as a spent force. Last September after an adroit political deal and a swift military operation, the army recaptured the country’s four main oil export terminals, ousting the renegade Petroleum Facilities Guard which instead of protecting them, had closed down the terminals and held them to ransom. The subsequent loss of income was put at $1 billion by the head of the National Oil Corporation.
At a stroke, Haftar had given parliament, which is internationally-recognized, and the government of Abdullah Thinni that it had appointed, which the international community does not recognize, control of the greater part the country’s oil production and exports.
Then at the start of this month an Islamist militia closely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood was able to launch a surprise attack which took back two of the terminals at Sidra and Ras Lanuf. The incompetent LNA defenses crumbled and despite spurious claims to have held off the attackers, then retaken the terminals, it became apparent that Haftar’s forces had actually suffered an humiliating defeat.
The LNA chef’s position seemed to be further undermined by his refusal to meet the head of the Tripoli-based government of Fayez Serraj, which is recognized by the international community and was installed in the capital as part of the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement. This meeting had been set up in Cairo by the Egyptian government who have been supporting the LNA with weapons, munitions and training. The Egyptians were reportedly furious but it never seemed likely that they were going to withdraw their support for Haftar who shares their anti-Muslim Brotherhood policies.
Now Haftar has reversed the military situation. The LNA has retaken the two oil export terminals and reportedly driven further west toward Sirte. This was Qaddafi’s old hometown and once a Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) stronghold until the terrorists were ousted at the end of last year by Misratan forces from the west. Haftar’s recapture of the lost ground took slightly more than a day and was preceded by ten days of airstrikes which pictures seem to show had a devastating effect on the enemy convoys. There was a video of militia vehicles haring at great speed away from the battle.
Haftar and the parliament, the House of Representatives are now back in the political driving seat. Militarily his ascendancy would seem limited by the reluctance of tribal fighters from Cyrenaica in the east to press further west. But there is also now fighting in Tripoli as local militias seek to oust Misratan and Amazigh fighters who support the Muslim Brotherhood.
Whatever the outcome of the battle in the capital, the House of Representatives’ next move is crucial. It has rejected the Libyan Political Agreement and the Serraj government. However when Haftar first took the oil terminals last year, he returned their control to the National Oil Corporation in Tripoli and the oil income continued to flow to the Central Bank from where it was disbursed, in a fashion, to all parts of the country including the east. The temptation now may be to try and seize control of the eastern oil income. This would be a grave error opposed by the international community. It would also bring about the de facto partition of Libya and could set the stage for a bitter civil war.
