Libya is on the brink of civil war with fighting between the forces of east and west over two airbases in the center of the country. The protagonists are the Libyan National Army and Misratan forces made up of a range of militias.
Misratans feel, with some justification, that during the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar Gaddafi, they did the heavy lifting. The fight to throw the regime’s troops out of Misrata was long and bitter but with the loss of the port city, the dictator’s grip on his country unraveled. The city’s militias went on to liberate the capital Tripoli in a drive from the east, while fighters from the mountain town of Zintan moved in from the west and south. They thereafter shared control of the city in an increasingly uneasy alliance that broke down in the summer of 2014 when Misratans drove the Zintanis out.
But while Misratan military power was asserted in the west of the country, a new force emerged in the east. From 2013, Benghazi saw a rising tide of assassinations of serving and former police and army personnel, civil rights activists and journalists. The murders were carried out by the Al-Qaeda affiliate Ansar Al-Sharia. These terrorist outrages finally prompted a retired general Khalifa Hafter to form the Dignity operation to fight back against the terrorists. Hafter’s initiative was welcomed by the House of Representatives, the parliament which had fled Tripoli and set up in Tobruk. It made him commander in chief of the Libyan National Army that he had established. It has taken two and a half years, but the terrorists in Benghazi are now on the brink of defeat.
The LNA has had a series of other successes. It has cut off the Ansar Al-Sharia terrorists in the coastal town of Derna and wrested control of the four oil export terminals from a militia which instead of guarding the ports, blockaded them and demanded money. Libya’s oil exports have since resumed and production has risen from a low of some 200,000 barrels a day to 700,000.
Hafter claims to have 50,000 men under arms. There is no doubt that his forces have been equipped with Russian weaponry smuggled in from the east and south in breach of the UN arms embargo. The Misratans too have secured weapons and spare parts, which have for instance enabled them to get Russian aircraft back in the air. The largely Misratan-led operation to retake Gaddafi’s hometown of Sirte from Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) terrorists has emboldened the Misratans to try and assert control in the center of the country around Sabha. It is here that they have clashed with the Libyan National Army.
The UN mission in Libya is appealing for a ceasefire and warning of escalation. The international community still backs the Presidency Council and its Government of National Accord, which it installed in Tripoli last March. But this administration has been notable for its failure to get a grip on the warring militias in the capital. Power cuts, crumbling security, a collapsing currency and a dearth of cash in the banks make it seem irrelevant as the two real powers in the country square up for a showdown. Libya begins the new year with bleak prospects for peace.
