SOUTH Sudanese have fled by the tens of thousands into neighboring Sudan, the country they fought bitterly and fiercely for years to win independence. This shows how dire the economic situation in the world’s youngest nation is. The country’s ousted Vice President Riek Machar met with officials of his SPLM in opposition party in September in Khartoum, the capital of the same Sudan, and issued a statement declaring war on the government headed by Salva Kiir. Both Kiir and Machar were on one side when they were fighting Sudan for the independence of South Sudan. This shows how deep is the rivalry between the two men.
And the people of South Sudan know how devastating and disastrous the consequences of this rivalry are. Fighting between supporters of president and his ousted deputy claimed at least 60 lives this week alone. On Monday, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said it had received reports of horrific attacks on civilians, including some who were burned to death, and urged both sides to control their forces.
South Sudan that won independence in 2011 sank into civil war in 2013 after President Kiir sacked Machar, from his position as vice president.
Subsequent fighting often followed ethnic lines (president is an ethnic Dinka while Machar is a Nuer) and human rights groups say both sides targeted civilians.
There have been numerous attempts to reach a sustainable truce, but all ended in failure. After two years of civil war, Machar arrived in the capital Juba in April to cement a shaky peace agreement that gave his opposition SPLA-IO a stake in a government of national unity and he was reinstated as vice president. But that deal expired in five days of fighting in July, which routed Machar’s small protection force. He fled the country and is seeking medical treatment in South Africa.
Kiir appears to be succeeding in his efforts to sideline Machar, with former SPLA-IO chief negotiator, Taban Deng Gai, sworn in as vice president. But Machar is not merely an individual. He represents a party as well as an ethnic group.
There are all sorts of wild rumors circulating, triggering fear and tension in South Sudan. The UN has warned of increasing violence as rebellion is spreading across the country. In its wake, refugees are fleeing into neighboring Uganda and Ethiopia, fearing yet more bloodshed to come. The crisis has already left more than five million people, roughly half the population, in need of aid. Residents of Juba had reported a higher-than-usual presence of soldiers on the streets and schools had sent pupils back home.
Given the developments since 2011, many see possibilities of a massacre on the scale of the 1994 Rwandan genocide which claimed one million lives in just 100 days.
Today’s strife and disarray is a far cry from that night on July 9, 2011 when the people of the new state, Africa’s fifty-fourth, celebrated wildly as they made a longed-for new start after one of the world’s most destructive and protracted civil wars.
What went wrong?
Everything, in a sense. But the biggest mistake was for Western powers, especially the US which midwifed the birth of the new nation, to assume they could build a state without addressing more profound problems of internal conflict and political reconciliation.
Although Machar has threatened an armed resistance against the government, he has not closed doors on a settlement with Kiir. He wants to revive the August 2015 peace deal between the SPLM-IO and the government, imperfect though it is. The “troika” of countries that backed the peace deal – the United States, Britain and Norway – should call for an urgent meeting of South Sudanese political parties to explore possibilities of reinstituting the transitional government, as Machar demanded. They have to address issues such as reforms in government institutions, cantonment areas for Machar’s troops, and Kiir’s plan to create 28 states.
