The decision by British premier Theresa May to call a snap general election in just seven weeks’ time is all the more of a surprise because, ever since she succeeded David Cameron in Downing Street, May has been insisting that her government would serve out its statutory term which ends in 2020.
The pro-EU Cameron resigned when the referendum he had promised on continued EU membership was won by the Leave campaign. Though May had been a “remainer”, she played little role in the referendum hustings and when she took over from Cameron pledged “Brexit means Brexit”. She insisted that she was going to carry out the will of the British electorate and that there would be no half-measures. The UK was going to quit the EU. Last month she triggered the two-year process in which London’s departure will be negotiated in Brussels.
May gave as her main reason for changing her mind about a snap election the fact that while the country was united on the path to Brexit, parliamentarians were not. On the face of it, this is specious nonsense. The pro-European British establishment is still in a state of shock at losing. The “remoaners”, as they are now characterized, are still grumbling and pushing for a second referendum.
The real reason for May’s move is more to do with the fact that she currently has an overall majority of just 17 in parliament. The opposition Labour party is in chaos under a left-wing leader who for all his evident sincerity does not look to many voters like prime minister material. The UK Independence Party, which played such a role in bringing about and then winning the referendum, has become a squabbling rabble that is a victim of its own success. May is clearly calculating that she will romp home with a much larger majority. This will not only give her a personal mandate to get on with Brexit but it will also rob pro-European MPs in her party of the ability to make significant difficulties during the negotiations with Brussels.
The problem is that this election is coming almost exactly a year after the historic referendum. Pro-Europeans will undoubtedly see it as an opportunity to stage a second vote that can be taken as overthrowing last year’s Brexit result. Given the ineffectual Labour opposition, there is a clear likelihood that the battleground will be within May’s conservative party itself. The risk of splitting the party in a replay of the deeply-damaging divisions under 1990s Conservative premier John Major seems very clear. Unless May can maintain party discipline, there is a clear danger that even if she wins, she will be at the head of an unstable party where old wounds have been reopened and turned politically septic.
The one advantage that May would seem to enjoy is that seven weeks is not very long for the pro-Europeans to mount a successful campaign within the general election. But now that the starting gun has been fired, all sorts of unlikely cross-party alliances, revelations and feuds seem set to emerge. By the time the British vote again, it will be known if Marine Le Pen has been checked in her chauvinistic and racist drive for the French presidency. The French outcome could have a powerful effect on the UK vote.
