Muhammad Al-Sulami
Al-Watan daily
Iran’s political leaders and ideological think tanks have never really trusted Russia. They only take advantage of the mutual interests between the two countries, especially during crises. Decades after the dismantling of the Soviet Union and the dwindling Russian political influence as a superpower, Russia has managed to rise again and play a more prominent role in global political conflicts.
The United States has been the main superpower since the 1980s. But the Russian Bear has awakened and it is back with a vengeance in the political arena. Vladimir Putin is very ambitious and aspires to build a strong and modern country that plays a pivotal role in the world, one that does not take a backseat and watch events unravel around it while it takes no action. The world has been ripped by political and economic crises.
Iran is the most perfect ally for Russia in the Middle East because it shares similar visions with Russia, especially with respect to the Syrian crisis. They both support the Syrian regime and actively try to suppress the Syrian revolution.
If both countries did not have mutual interests, would Iran still trust Russia? No political reports or analyses have tackled this issue. Based on my humble knowledge of the Iranian mentality, I can assert that Iran and its political leaders and think tanks do not and will not trust Russia. Iran is only capitalizing on its mutual interests with Russia. If we take a deep look at Iranian history, we will find that Russia has played a negative role in it.
First, Russia defeated Iran in two major wars in the first half of the 19th century and seized large portions of Iranian territory. Not only that, it also hegemonized the Iranian economy in the beginning of the 20th century and during the 1905-1911 revolution. Currently, Iran and Russia enjoy mutual political and economic interests but Iran still remembers vividly the wounds and pains inflicted by Russia. It still holds a grudge against Russia and it has not buried the hatchet.
More importantly, Russia realizes well the dangers posed by Western economic openness to Iran. American, German and French companies are ready to venture into the profitable Iranian market when and if Iran shows its full commitment to the nuclear agreement. If the relations between Iran and Western countries go back to normal levels, Iran will be a strong competitor for Russia in terms of gas exports to Europe. In fact, Iran has a strategic location and produces natural gas in abundant quantity. Of course, Russia does not want Iran to have good relations with Western countries.
Iranian gas is the best economic and strategic solution for European countries that need low-cost gas. Importing Iranian instead of Russian gas will help European countries reduce their reliance on Russia and eliminate any economic threat Russia poses to these countries whenever a conflict arises. Would Russia work against its own interests and harm its strategic objectives? In fact, Russia will never accept any agreement, whether in East Europe or the Middle East, which does not serve its own interests. It might want the world to think that it supports Iran and that it will not stand in the way of the ongoing negotiations between the West and Iran.
Politics relies heavily on interests and reducing all types of threats that harm such interests, whether political, economic, military, etc. Therefore, any Iranian-Russian actions taken in the near future will be well calculated. Both countries will study the volume of gains and losses before taking any action. Iran will be put in a tighter spot, as it will have to choose between its permanent supporters and temporary allies. Economic openness is something that Iranian leaders have always aspired to and so will foreign companies.
These companies are waiting for Iran to open its economy. However, such openness might make Iran lose Russia. For those who do not know, Russia knows almost all the secrets related to the Iranian nuclear stations and the country’s military power. In fact, Iran views Russia as a dangerous friend. That is why Iran will face several dangers in the upcoming years as a result of the decisions it will take to protect its interests.
Let us for a moment forget about the political relations between Russia and Iran. Let us focus on the Russian-Iranian coordination concerning Syria and the unlimited support Russia extends to the Syrian regime. This coordination is more tactical than strategic. How? Iran and Russia had some disputes when Aleppo was brought under the Syrian regime’s control. Iran tried to obstruct and hinder any agreement between Turkey and Russia. The Iranian militias tried to prevent the evacuation of civilians from Aleppo; as a result, Russia threatened that it would bombard any party that would try to hinder the success of the agreement reached with respect to Aleppo.
These threats give us a clue to the future of Russian-Iranian coordination. Russia’s strategic interests and objectives in Syria are completely different from those of Iran. That means that if outside players get involved in the Syrian cause in the future, Russia will act based on its own interests. Iran is capitalizing on the Russian-American tension and working closely with Russia to achieve its goals. But if Russian-American relations improve, Iran will be marginalized.
There are many indications that Russian-American relations will improve once US President-elect Donald J. Trump takes over. One indication is the man Trump has nominated to be secretary of state. Rex Tillerson has close relations with the Russian president. Other indications are the statements made by Trump about the future of Russian-American ties. Currently, Russian relations with Arab countries seem to have had no negative impact on Russian-Iranian relations. Unfortunately, most Arab countries do not seem to play an influential role in the region. Let us hope that this situation will soon change.
