SOUTH Sudan marked the fourth anniversary of its founding on Thursday with little or no sign that the world's youngest nation will be free from violence and turmoil anytime soon. The division of Sudan, Africa's biggest country, that led to the birth of South Sudan in 2011 followed a prolonged civil war that is estimated to have killed two million people and displaced many more. If the pre-2011 conflict pitted a largely Christian south against an Arab- and Muslim-dominated north, what we witness now are the disastrous consequences of a feud between former comrades.
Violence erupted in December 2013 after months of political tension between President Salva Kiir and his sacked deputy and rival, Riek Machar. This power struggle has its origin in longstanding tribal animosities between the majority Dinka (to which Kiir belongs) and Machar's Nuer people. What began as clashes between Dinka and Nuer members of the presidential guard spread, within no time, to other parts of the country.
There have been at least seven tentative agreements to cease fire since last January, but each of them were broken almost immediately by the army of President Kiir or Machar's rebels or by both. More than a year and a half of on-off talks in Ethiopia too failed to end the fighting. Negotiations collapsed in March after Kiir and rebel leader Machar failed to agree on a power-sharing deal.
The conflict has killed thousands of people and driven more than 2.2 million from their homes, many of them fleeing to neighboring states including Kenya. Both sides stand accused of war crimes. UN Security Council last week imposed travel bans and asset freezes on six generals from both the government and rebel sides. More than 12,000 children have been recruited by armed groups to serve as soldiers, according to the world body.
Meanwhile, fighting is threatening the government’s main source of income: Oil. According to World Bank, South Sudan is the most oil-dependent country in the world and one can imagine what would happen when output suffers a steep fall. Production has slumped from 400,000 barrels per day in 2013 to less than 200,000 bpd. Fighting is most intense in areas where oilfields are located. Due to drop in revenue, the government finds it difficult to pay import bills for essential items like food. The war has affected all aspects of life in South Sudan. In the worst-hit areas, two-thirds of the health facilities have closed or are working at only partial capacity, according to UN.
In his independence anniversary speech, Kiir blamed the rebels for what he called a “senseless war.” But the president was being disingenuous. What threw the international-backed mediation process between the two leaders into further disarray was a three-year extension of president’s term in office granted by parliament in March. Kiir's term ended from midnight on July 8. Rebels say Parliament did not have the right to amend the constitution. Even US seems to agree with the rebels' stand on this issue. US National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice has criticized the government for “unilaterally” extending its mandate thus subverting democracy.
It is becoming more and more clear that there is no military solution to the conflict. UN has called for a political settlement. Washington has urged the South Sudanese parties to establish immediately a transitional government that can serve with legitimacy and represent the needs of their people.
Kiir should realize that the world opinion is turning against him. The only foreign leader who attended Thursday's anniversary celebrations was President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. It is time Kiir realized how isolated he is from the world community and rethought his approach to the crisis engulfing his country. There is a new push for the resumption of talks led by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Kiir should cooperate with them and work for a negotiated settlement while he still holds some bargaining chips.
