Under the slogan “We are Ready”, France’s far-right National Front is the clear winner in Sunday’s first round of the country’s regional elections. Almost a third of those who voted backed this racist party led by Marine Le Pen. In Marseilles, with its large Muslim and West African population, the NF’s support topped 40 percent.
The Republican party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy trailed the NF in second place and the governing socialist of Francois Hollande came a poor third. Interestingly, Hollande’s once-dismal approval ratings have shot up because of his handling of the Paris massacre, but his party has not seen a similar benefit. Along with Sarkozy’s center-right Republicans, the established parties have taken a battering.
In her crowing speech welcoming the results, the NF leader said that the first round result represented a rejection “of the old political class”. And it is hard to disagree with her. The rise of maverick politicians who claim to be outside of the political system, who trade heavily on their newness, even on their lack of experience of political office, is a cause for concern. Political contenders like Donald Trump, not only glory in their political inexperience but go out of their way to mock the measured tones of middle-of-the-road policies. Trump’s verbal excess have scandalized the Washington political establishment but caused his apparently growing army of supporters to squirm with delight.
Marine le Pen has by contrast sanitized the rhetoric of her neo-Fascist party. But the echoes of past inflammatory speeches, particularly on immigration, on Muslims and on the European Union still circulate around her every time steps up to a podium. The core bigots in the NF wink at each other as their leader trots out her emollient and reasonable-sounding protests. They know her real thinking. And nervous bourgeois voters now feel confident in giving her their vote because the party has concealed its ugly, thuggish face. And besides, as Le Pen has said, after the Paris massacre, “something must be done”.
It is however fear, not prejudice that is propelling the majority of French voters. And that fear is not at best racist. As Bill Clinton told his advisers in his bid for the White House “It’s the economy, stupid”. And France’s economy is struggling. Inflexible labor legislation, high taxation, high welfare and health spending and too many loss-making state enterprises have all combined to drive the country into recession, and keep it there.
Unemployment remains stubbornly high. This affects everyone, from the immigrant sink areas of the banlieus to white industrial workers in France’s spreading industrial rust bucket. It is economic peril that has been exploited by the NF just as it was by its Nazi predecessor in Germany. When people are fearful for their future they can easily be persuaded to blame migrants, even though these people are French born and bred. They can also be seduced into blaming the establishment politicians who have promoted and protected the vision of a multicultural society.
The grim signs are that the NF will consolidate its success next Sunday. If this is indeed the case, then it has given Marine Le Pen a convincing political platform to run for the French presidency in 2017. That in itself is disturbing enough, but unless some momentous change occurs before then, on current showing, it would seem very likely that she would win.
