Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi
History and psychology may help in explaining current affairs. In the case of Russian-Turkish relations, they certainly do. Here we are watching a power play of two exceptional personalities, representing great, proud, rebounding peoples. Both men came to power in the new millennium to save their civilized, ancient nations from going under.
Separated from the Soviet Union Empire, Russia went into bad times. As it moved from its Marxist principles to capitalism, the Yeltsin administration was so busy selling state assets cheap, that it helped in dividing the nation into two tiers — ultra rich and ultra poor. The new mafia and capitalist class ruled a country that lost both its global prestige and self-confidence.
In ten years, form 1990 to 2000, a broken Russia was using World Bank loans to feed its population. The hurting ex-empire was calling out for a savior.
Then comes Vladimir Putin, the ex KGB lieutenant colonel, to Russia’s rescue. Putin, who grew up in better times, was a witness during his service with the Yeltsin administration (1991-1999) the fall of Mother Russia into chaos. He is a great admirer of Peter the Great, “Emperor of All Russia” (1682-1725), who single handedly built “New Russia,” which Putin vowed to revive.
Fifteen years, since he took over from President Yeltsin (May, 2000), Russia today is back in the “Superpower Club.” Just before the Ukrainian fiasco it had a strong, growing and vibrant economy. He also managed to resurrect the disintegrating Red Army into the second most powerful military in the world.
Putin is proud as he should be for his achievements, and is not about to let any person, country or incident steal the limelight from his show.
Turkey, before 2000, had a similar story. Its imperious glorious past was fading in the face of depressing new realities. Its economy was going south due to decades of mismanagement, military coups, political instability and corruption. Like Russia, it was addictive to heavily conditioned World Bank loans. And like Putin, Recep Tayeb Erdogan (2003) came to Turkey’s rescue.
In 12 years, Turkey has managed to pay all its debts, revive its economy, advance its industry, and return close to its glorious past. The proud nation became prouder, and its savior, too.
Now, here we are watching a face-off between two powerful, wannabe emperors. Collaborating, they were considerable partners. Each representing an exceptional nation that’s on a comeback trail. They were wise enough to forget the darker parts of their history, when they were archenemies for three centuries, and good enough to become partners in development.
Putin, who won every war he initiated (Chechnya, Abkhazia, Georgia, Ukraine) while expanding his empire each time, is facing a dangerous failure. A calculative gambler, he went to Syria to protect Russian interests, regain a wider grip in the world scene, forcing the West to rethink their economic embargo, and further foster his and his country’s pride and legacy.
Erdogan is paying a tremendous, unsustainable price for hosting millions of Syrian refugees and the Russian bolstering of his arch rivals — former ally, Bashar Assad and his economic, religious and historical competitor, Iran. National Security is always a red line. Russian intervention in neighboring Syria is worsening an already dangerously complicated situation.
Not only Russia is supporting the source of all dangers, the Assad regime, but also bombing Turkish allies and the Turks minority in Turkmen mountain. Putin has occupied parts of independent countries, under the pretext of protecting Russians in Abkhazia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. He should know better.
According to established international military rules of engagement, the downing of the Russian bomber was legitimate. The response is automatic and doesn’t need a higher authority than the gatekeepers. The Russian Air Force would have done the same, as Putin always warned, if NATO member violated the Russian skies. Russia shot down an American spy plane in 1960s, and Iran downed US and Israeli spy planes (2011-2015) that violated its airspace. America and Israel couldn’t even protest. They knew the rules and accepted the punishment.
Putin should have done the same. Instead of losing more of his waning credibility, he should have come clean and explained the many intrusions of his aircraft in recent weeks. He cannot expect courtesy and leniency every time — unless underestimating Turkey and NATO resoluteness and strength.
To demand an apology, instead of offering one, could only be explained as a personality issue: Super Putin cannot be seen cowering to a lesser nation. US “war toys” cannot be seen as superior to his. And Erdogan, terrorism or Western conspiracy had to be held responsible for Russia’s failures and miscalculated adventures.
Turkey, the Middle East and the world is expecting more Putin bravados and blunders. As the Syrian quagmire becomes deeper and costlier, he will become more belligerent. An angry and injured bear is bad news for all!
Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi is a Saudi writer based in Jeddah. He can be reached at kbatarfi@gmail.com. Follow him at Twitter:@kbatarfi
