Rajendra K. Aneja
2016 will be another mystifying year. Managing terrorism and economic disparities will dominate the international agenda. However, one event is certain: The United States will have a new president. Hillary may scrape through. Women across the world will rejoice on her securing the most powerful global job. Hillary may not be the preeminent candidate in times of militant radicalism and economic instability, but then the US has not produced another leader of calibre.
Hopefully Hillary will deliver more than Obama. Obama could not contain terrorism. Nor manage mercurial Putin. A glorious mandate was frittered away.
The European Union will hold, despite Britain’s referendum on whether to stay in it. Angela Merkel, a high-quality manager, may lose some shine. Her playing mother to refugees will exasperate Germans weary of paying for the regeneration of erstwhile East Germany. Britain’s Cameron will wrestle for a 2 percent growth.
Putin will be confrontational and infuriate Western leaders. With a negative GDP growth, Putin should focus at home. Brazil’s Rousseff will battle moves for her impeachment over corruption in Petrobras. China’s Xi will toil to avoid economic stagnation. However, Chinese factories will rust till America orders more clothes, umbrellas and shoes. China’s deceleration has triggered a global plunge in prices of oil, metals and commodities.
The Middle East will deal with low oil prices, Syrian imbroglio and Daesh aggrandizement. Syria and Yemen will hemorrhage till peace talks succeed. Most of Africa will edge forward.
Modi will tussle with realities at home. India is agitated with swarming streets, hazardous roads and rapes. People are searching for promised smart cities, bullet trains, jobs, etc. It takes seconds to make an election promise. It takes decades to translate it into action. Modi has no execution team. The time for oratory is over. It is time for action. Pakistan will build 220 nuclear warheads by 2020, the third highest in the world after the US and Russia.
The global economy will edge forward by 3.5 percent. The US will touch a growth rate of 2.5 percent. China’s growth will decline to 6 percent. India will gloat with a 7 percent growth, though it will be inadequate to dent poverty. The BRIC Club stands dissolved.
About 795 million people across the world will sleep hungry and 663 million people will lack access to drinking water.
Oil prices may languish around $40-50 per barrel. Producing countries Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran and Iraq will tighten budgets due to declining revenue. They may slash production.
The world is producing ample wheat and cereals. Whilst field prices are stable, retail prices will increase 2 to 5 percent. Rotten storage infrastructure and trader manipulation will lead to a 5 to 7 percent increase in food prices in Asian countries including India.
Stock markets will limp. Gold may lose some shine. Expect a price of $35-40 per gram.
While the world will inch forward economically, the poor will limp. The hiatus between rich and poor will widen. The rich are short of options for investment; the poor rummage for work. Fifty percent of the wealth of the world belongs to 1 percent of its population.
Remedies to cancer, HIV Aids and global warming will be discussed at global symposiums. But, there will be no solutions.
India prides itself on its 1.3 billion population market. Yet 400 million Indians live below the poverty line of $2 per day. India will be the most populated country by 2020. However, no leader has the guts to advocate population control. And 2,000 girls get killed in the womb every day, just because they are girls. E-commerce and m-commerce will gain momentum.
Expect people to want some time to themselves and not be connected electronically all the time. Facebook, WhatsApp, dating apps and new fashion will fascinate the young.
In a quarrelsome world, a fortnight will be ruled by excellence and glory. At the Rio Olympics in August 2016, we will admire the best athletes, hurdlers, swimmers. Their pursuit for 1,000 medals will enthrall us. Keep an eye on Bolt. Do not blink when he sprints for the 100 meter gold.
The world will continue battering Mr. Blatter. Football is money. So every country wants to own the game. Blatter transformed football into a global fantasia. Respect his entrepreneurship. Djokovic will reign in tennis grand slams. He is nimble, skilled and determined. However, Federer will continue to have more fans and evoke admiration for his élan.
India may lift the Trophy at the ICC T20 cricket extravaganza in March. Virat may make more enemies, due to his aggressive (read: bad mannered) game. Cricket is etiquette. If you want to play abrasive, join football. Hopefully we will see some significant Hollywood films with Al Pacino and Robert De Niro. Perhaps Bollywood will make relevant films like “Haider”. Madonna is fatigued. So we wait for new talent.
Hopefully artists like Bachchan and Shah Rukh will act for a living, instead of selling paints, chocolates, hair oils, etc.
So 2016 will be plagued by militant terrorism, average growth rates and weak global leadership. We will plod through a Chinese slowdown, low commodity and energy prices, a wobbly Middle East and shameful terrorist attacks on innocents. Global leaders must join together to fight the terrorist scourge. Every human life is precious, irrespective of nationality, religion or creed.
— The author worked for Unilever in Asia, Latin America and Africa. An alumnus of Harvard Business School and John Kennedy School of Government, he was a Sir Dorabji Tata Scholar and is the author of “Agenda for a New India”. He can be reached at: rkaneja@anejamanagent.com
