It is a popular media belief that thanks to its control over some Syrian oil fields, Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) is the world’s richest terrorist organization. The British newspaper the Financial Times demonstrated last month that in fact Daesh pulled in far more cash from plunder and extortion than from selling oil.
This has not, however, stopped media pundits from becoming excited about the new front that Daesh has opened in Libya, where some are claiming, in all seriousness, that the terrorists want to grab the country’s oil revenues for themselves. Monday’s eastwards thrust by Daesh from its base in Sirte toward the main Libyan oil export terminals at Sidra and Ras Lanuf is being seen as evidence of this diabolic plan.
Yet the idea that the terrorists could earn a single cent from seizing and selling Libyan oil is utterly absurd. The cancer that is Daesh has grown unchallenged within a Libya that has been torn apart by the Muslim Brotherhood seizure of the capital and much of the northwest of the country. The considerable insecurity since the summer 2014 insurrection has forced most foreigners, including diplomats, to flee the capital in Tripoli. With them went overseas managers and technicians from the oil and gas sector.
Thus oil production has plummeted and only two export terminals, at Mellitah in the west and Tobruk’s Hariga in the east, as still functioning. The flow of oil and gas to them is now limited. Libya’s oil production, let alone exports, has plummeted. And even if there were any oil to be stolen, where and how could Daesh sell it? One rebel attempt in 2014 to sell oil illegally ended when US special forces intercepted the tanker carrying it. There is no chance then that the terrorists are expecting to boost their revenue by stealing Libyan oil.
So what is it that they are up to in Libya as they expand from Sirte, Gaddafi’s hometown, with the cynical support of some of the late dictators followers? The terrorists have a problem in Libya. The majority of them are not Libyans and if there is one thing that unites Libyans, it is their dislike of foreign interference. Daesh has in its ranks battle-hardened veterans of Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Ill-disciplined Libyan militias are more interested in being seen totting their weapons while wearing the latest camo-chic uniforms than in doing any serious fighting. They are no match for the terrorists.
Foreign airstrikes and clinical kill-and-go special forces raids will be a very different problem for Daesh. If the international community backs these up with a complete maritime blockade, in the long-run the terrorists are doomed. As and when the new Libyan Government of National Accord of Faiez Serraj, created by the United Nations, requests outside military help, Daesh knows it faces terminal challenges.
And it should not be forgotten that these terrorists are a death cult. If they can seize and occupy oil export terminals and oil field installations, then they know that when they are destroyed, so too will be hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of oil industry infrastructure. These ruthless killers are already looking forward to the day when their graves will be marked by billowing clouds of burning oil.
