Libya is arguably the world’s most governed country. A third government was added on Tuesday to the rebel government in Tripoli and what, until now, has been the internationally-recognized government of Abdullah Al-Thinni in the east of the country.
The new government is the result of 12 months of negotiations overseen by the United Nations that have endeavored to stitch together some sort of political consensus.
Named the Government of National Accord it certainly shows signs of not very impressive political needlework. There are 32 ministers, each of whom will have two deputies. With the nine-member presidential council headed by the future prime minister Faiez Serraj, the whole ministerial team numbers 105. In size the new government looks more like a parliament than an administration.
Very few of these people has any particular expertise in their assigned portfolios. They have been selected because of where they come from. The way Serraj has sought the consensus for which the UN has pressed has been to divvy up the different ministerial roles between Libya’s three different regions - Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica in the east and Fezzan in the south. Additionally different towns were told that they could select ministers or deputies and these people would get the jobs.
This hydra-headed arrangement is an extreme way to produce a representative government and it surely promises huge administrative problems as Serraj tries to make it work. However, the structure defines the real purpose behind an administration that is designed to last only two years, before elections are held under a new constitution that is still being written.
The GNA is supposed to unite all factions and regions and bring about the disarmament of the Libya Dawn militias which seized Tripoli. There is also an urgent need to transport humanitarian aid to hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the civil war and to fix the collapsing economy.
But most pressing is the growing issue of terrorism. Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) now has thousands of fighters based in Muammar Gaddafi’s old hometown of Sirte. From there they have spread out hundreds of kilometers along the coast and pressed south toward the oil fields. There are sleeper cells in the capital Tripoli and in most towns controlled by Libya Dawn. The terrorist threat is immense.
For the international community the real importance of the new government is that it is expected to request counter-terrorism assistance. At that point air strikes seem certain against Daesh along with the presence of foreign forces - the Italians, British and Germans have all pledged troops - though it is being emphasized that they will only be present to train and advise, not in combat roles. That remains to be seen. Special Forces seem certain to be deployed.
The new government faces two further hurdles before it can start work: it must be approved by the elected House of Representatives in the east and it has to move from its current home in Tunis to set itself up in Tripoli. At the moment most in Libya Dawn led by Nuri Abu Sahmain, the president of the old parliament, the General National Congress, oppose the GNA. However, if the HOR accepts Serraj’s administration, he can at least call for international counter-terrorism help and the air strikes can start immediately.
