Forty-two years after it was divided, Cyprus may be close to reuniting, which would make it just about the only good news story in a region that is riven with brutal fighting and waves of refugees. Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci are due to meet again today in the UN compound at the abandoned Nicosia Airport. It is not that many days since the two men made a very public point of warmly shaking hands at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
All the signs are that both the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders genuinely want to find a way to bury their communities’ differences. But whatever their personal rapport, history and much devilish detail are going to make a final deal an uphill struggle. When the ethnic Greeks and Turks of Cyprus gained independence from British rule in 1960, the power-sharing constitution which underwrote the rights of both communities was guaranteed by Turks and mainland Greeks as well as the British. But in 1963, the then Cypriot President Archbishop Makarios sought to end the power-sharing arrangements. Old suspicions erupted into communal rioting. In 1974 the military junta which had seized power in Greece backed a coup against Makarios and intended to make Cyprus part of Greece. The coup failed but not before Turkey, acting as guarantor of the 1960 constitution, had sent in troops and occupied the northern half of the island.
The island has been divided ever since. One irony of Ankara’s intervention was that many Turkish Cypriots saw little future in their homeland. Those who held British passports decamped to the United Kingdom. The northern part of the island became so depopulated that the mainland Turks sent in Anatolian peasants to work abandoned farms. Of course much of this property had formerly belonged to members of the Greek community, just as in the southern part of the island, Turkish-owned farms and houses and businesses were abandoned. Settling the complex ownership issues, whether by physical restoration or financial restitution is a mare’s nest of complexity.
Two generations of islanders have grown up with the division of their country but bitter memories remain. For years it was the Turkish community under the leadership of Rauf Denktash who resisted reunification efforts by the UN and the Greek community. Then in 2004 as the Greek part of the island prepared to join the EU, a referendum on reunion saw the Turkish community agree but their former Greek neighbors overwhelming reject the plan.
Has the mood among the Greeks changed over the last 12 years? Greek Cyprus has been hit with a banking collapse and financial scandal. Even if the property issues can be resolved, there is now huge suspicion at the behavior of the Erdogan government in Ankara. This will doubtless be boosted by considerable Russian financial interests in the Greek part of the island. Moscow and Ankara are at present very far from being friends. And no Greek Cypriot would welcome a continuation of any mainland Turkish guarantees of whatever new constitution is finally proposed. Goodwill alone from political leaders is not going to be enough. Over and above the property issue, there is a wide and deep chasm of mistrust to be bridged. Anastasiades and Akinci have said they hope for a settlement this year. Unfortunately, that seems overly optimistic.
