There is every reason to doubt Vladimir Putin’s surprise announcement that he is pulling the majority of Russian forces out of Syria. He says their mission has been largely accomplished.
But the question is:What was that mission in the first place? When Putin said it was about fighting terrorists, it was clear that he was using the Assad regime’s definition that the Syrians who rose up against its brutal dictatorship were terrorists, controlled from abroad. Russian jets launched a few raids against the real terrorists of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) but most of their destruction was focussed on Free Syrian Army units. With Moscow’s air cover, the regime’s troops and the dreaded Shabiha militia were able to push back FSA forces, relieve besieged positions and re-establish communications corridors linking territory it still controlled.
But though severely mauled, the FSA is very far from being defeated. Put another way, the dictator Assad is very far from being victorious. It is being reported that the Russians were angry when Assad recently spoke of his determination to recapture every bit of Syria, however long it took. He seemed to be taking for granted that Russian warplanes and special forces would be at his side every bloody step of the way. It is equally being said that the Russians are fed up with Damascus’ insistence that Assad continue to be part of any future leadership.
So are the Russians really going while keeping their upgraded naval facility at Tartus and Hmeimim airbase? Assad is very far from being secure. His soldiers may have been reequipped and trained by Moscow but barrel bombs are no more likely to destroy his opponents today than they were in the past. Can Putin afford to let history take its course and stand back and let Assad meet the retribution he so richly deserves?
There is one analysis that says that Russia’s six-month Syrian operation was never about the survival of the Syrian regime. It did not even have anything to do with keeping the Tartus naval base. It did, however, have everything to do with Putin’s recovery of a geopolitical role following his isolation and sanctioning over the seizure of Crimea and his Iranian-like meddling in eastern Ukraine.
Obama’s failure to act decisively in Syria, even after Assad crossed the red line of chemical weapons, left a political vacuum. The best Washington could do was lead the coalition airstrikes on Daesh. Putin wrong-footed Obama when he said he was also sending forces to attack the terrorists. Now as the Geneva peace talks sputter back to life, the Russians are sheathing their weapons. It is not difficult to guess why. They can pressure, indeed threaten, Assad to make a deal and then head with his henchmen to comfortable dachas outside Moscow. But Putin will not do this unless he has something in return. He will ask for recognition of Russia’s Crimea annexation but will settle for an end to international sanctions. He will give a nebulous promise to stop fostering the revolt in eastern Ukraine in return for an EU/NATO promise not to seek to integrate Ukraine further.
If this is Putin’s plan and he pulls it off, Russians will have escaped sanctions thanks to the blood of thousands of FSA and civilian martyrs.
