What is more dangerous than Britain leaving the European Union or an armed clash in the South China Sea? Donald Trump becoming president of the United States. At least that is the conclusion of the Economist Intelligence Unit. The well-respected global economic and geopolitical analysis firm says a Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos and heighten security risks for the US. According to the latest EIU forecasts, electing Trump could also start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and play right into the hands of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS). Only China encountering a “hard landing” or a sharp economic slowdown and Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria preceding a new “cold war” were among the events seen as more dangerous than a President Trump.
The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy”.
“He has been exceptionally hostile toward free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labelled China as a ‘currency manipulator’,” the EIU said.
Trump is moving closer to clinching the Republican presidential nomination after so far winning the majority of the popular vote in primary elections. He has come this far despite - or because of - aggressive rhetoric in everything he says, from banning Muslims from entering the US to kicking out 11 million illegal immigrants from the US. He was slow to disavow white supremacy and has warned that his supporters would “riot” if he was denied the nomination at a contested or brokered Republican convention. From using torture to killing the families of terrorists, these loathsome and practically impossible ideas have had pundits constantly predicting that he had finally gone too far. Again, voters disagreed. Six in 10 Republicans backed the Muslim ban, and he hit a new high in the national polls weeks ahead of the first contests.
Trump’s controversial remarks on Muslims would be a gift to Daesh and other Islamist terrorist groups who have long been trying to paint the US as an anti-Muslim country. And while the Trump campaign talks about being able to reach out to Hispanics and African Americans, it’s not an overstatement to say he would be the most unpopular candidate with either group to ever lead a national ticket.
One difficulty in assessing Trump’s policy positions is that he tends to be all over the place. Unlike traditional presidential frontrunners, he has little or no policy substance and has no prior political experience. However, that seems to be what his supporters want, an outsider not tainted by Washington politics.
EIU once included the transition at the top of the Chinese Communist Party as a top-ten risk as well, but until Trump, the firm had never rated a pending election of a candidate to be a geopolitical risk to the US and the world. It has not seeded Hillary Clinton who looks set to become the Democratic nominee.
Trump’s dismantling of the Republican field is proof that he is a new force in politics. He has accumulated about half of the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination and despite the credible scenarios in which he does not become the nominee, they are becoming fewer with every passing primary. He has tapped into very real fears about free markets, open borders and the costs of tolerance. He is also the savviest exploiter of the media.
In the event Trump does win the nomination and the presidency, the EIU forecasts that domestic and foreign policymaking will be undermined. Trump’s presidency is a risk. Nine months after entering the presidential arena, Trump has made one thing plain: you sell him short at your own risk.
