Since March 2, 2016 when the GCC issued a resolution labeling the Lebanese militia of Hezbollah a terrorist organization, successive GCC resolutions have been issued to counter and crush the influence of Hezbollah on all levels. This includes leaders and factions of organizations affiliated to and emanating from Hezbollah in its role in stirring up violence and chaos and sectarian incitement in clear and explicit violation of the sovereignty, security and stability of Gulf countries. The resolutions will have three serious and important ramifications for the future of Hezbollah inside Lebanon and throughout the region.
Firstly, Hezbollah will be stifled financially and economically. Subsequent to the resolution, the GCC started to record and track the bank accounts, investments and real estate assets of Hezbollah’s individual members and companies. It imposed restrictions on financial and commercial transactions or froze assets in banks and banned visas. Hezbollah and its affiliate organizations and factions undoubtedly benefitted from investment and commercial facilities in the GCC as Lebanese investments there are estimated to be over a hundred billion dollars. Over 300,000 Lebanese work in the GCC sending nearly four billion dollars a year back to Lebanon.
From now on, all of these investments and financial transactions will be tracked and monitored. Any that belong to Hezbollah will be subject to Article 18 “Hitting Terrorism Pathways” of the GCC Counter-Terrorism Agreement stipulating “identify, detect, freeze or seize any funds used or dedicated for the purpose of activities and revenues of funding and supporting terrorism for confiscation, exchange or share with other contracting states should the activities be relevant to a terrorist activity extended to their territories or causing damage to their interests”. This economic and financial blockade is in accordance with other countries that have labeled Hezbollah a terrorist organization, which means the expansion of its international encirclement.
Secondly, the erosion of political legitimacy. The Gulf resolution will put pressure on Hezbollah in two ways: from one side, direct pressure will be placed on the organization’s popular support, a power factor of the militia during recent years, whose interests began to be affected. The Hezbollah militias recruit mercenaries from different Asian and Middle Eastern countries, paying them monthly salaries and other enticements as incentives. These benefits and enticements will be affected by blocking the organization’s finances. In addition, as per the GCC agreement, the ban-resolution provides for “facilitating and expediting exchange of terror suspects between countries including those who are sentenced and judicially convicted in acts of terrorism”. Therefore, members of Hezbollah will be treated as terrorists due to their membership of a terrorist organization, which may put more pressure on the organization.
Moreover, an overseas political blockade will be imposed on Hezbollah and its affiliates as Arab countries will not be allowed to have contact with a terrorist organization, which will have an impact on the organization’s regional and international relations. From the other side, there will be pressure from Lebanese parties which oppose and seek to politically isolate Hezbollah, as dealing with them would be detrimental to the national interest, and relations with the Lebanese government will be determined by its distance from Hezbollah.
Thirdly, legitimating military action. The Gulf resolution could make the Hezbollah militia in Syria or Iraq the military target of the international coalition led by the USA with the participation of some Gulf states due to its being a terrorist organization. If the Islamic coalition launched military action against Daesh in Syria and the region, it would certainly not exclude Hezbollah from its target as a terrorist organization similar to Daesh, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra and other terrorist organizations in the region.
Finally, I believe that the Gulf resolution will serve Lebanon in the first place and will be a significant move toward delegitimizing Hezbollah, who have manipulated Lebanon and dragged it into nonsensical wars, serving no interests of Lebanon but only the regional interests of Hezbollah, i.e. Iran. The Gulf resolution will seek to promote state institutions and central authority in order for Lebanon to gain independence to make its own decisions that will serve its national interests.
Dr. Ibrahim Alothaimin,
Riyadh
