PAKISTAN may be innocent of the charges being leveled against it by New Delhi whenever there is a terrorist attack on Indian soil. But in a democracy perceptions do matter. And the perception in India has all along been that Pakistan was behind Uri terror attack of Sept. 18 in which 19 Indian soldiers lost their lives as well as all previous acts of terrorism, including the one on Pathankot air base in January. Parallel to this, a perception has been growing in India that all the talk of a “muscular foreign policy” under Prime Minister Narendra Modi was just that — a talk.
Modi has to acknowledge the first perception and remove the second one if he is to face the electorate in the 2019 parliamentary elections and next year's state legislature elections in UP and Punjab.
Surgical strikes conducted by the Indian Army on Wednesday to eliminate seven terror launch pads operating in that part of Kashmir under Pakistani control should be seen against this background. This may not be the first attack of this kind staged by India, but this was the biggest. Another difference is Wednesday's attack was followed by wide publicity.
India has evacuated more than 10,000 villagers living near the border, and ordered security forces to upgrade surveillance along the frontier in Jammu and Kashmir, part of the 3,300-km border.
But there seems to be no possibility of military escalation that could wreck a 2003 Kashmir ceasefire. India has made it clear this is not an attack on Pakistan’s defense forces, but a targeted action against men preparing to sneak into its territory and attack major cities. Since India considers that part of Kashmir as Indian territory, no violation of international border is involved. Surgical strikes, India says, were part of a strategy that includes non-military components like the campaign to try to isolate Pakistan, boycotting a summit of South Asian leaders next month in Islamabad, threat to deny water Pakistan is entitled to under Indus Water Treaty.
India's director general, military operation (DGMO), has called his Pakistani counterpart to convey the message that his country doesn't want to escalate the conflict beyond what happened on Wednesday night.
Pakistan, of course, has played down the Indian operation. So, for the time being, situation seems to be under control. The big question is whether Pakistan will be prepared to leave things where India wants them to be as long as unrest continues in Indian Kashmir.
After all, the latest conflict began after a young Kashmir separatist leader was killed by Indian forces. India is still struggling to contain violent protests on the streets of the Himalayan state, where more than 80 civilians have been killed and thousands wounded in the last 10 weeks.
Kashmir, according to an American journalist, is “like a volcano: forgotten when quiescent, but terrifying when it comes alive.”
India can ask Pakistan to abandon the dream of seizing Kashmir by force or stealth, it can set its face against third-party mediation, but it can't deny that the volcano has been alive for the last few months.
The trouble started long before Modi came to power. He is facing the cumulative effect of the failure of successive Congress governments to address Kashmiris' grievances. The present administration has made things worse by threats to repeal Article 370 which gives the state special status and extending the ban on cow slaughter and consumption of beef to a Muslim-majority state. It is true, that there has been a separatist dimension to the problem right from the beginning. But the government should differentiate between the genuine grievances of the people including their fear that the demographic complexion of the state will be undermined and the maximalist demands of separatists. As long as Kashmir remains restive, the subcontinent will be in the grip of tension with every possibility of things going out of control.
