Less than a week after a coalition of forces began its advance on the Iraqi city of Mosul which is being held by Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS), fighters of the group have slaughtered villagers, taken hundreds of families hostage and attacked another city, Kirkuk, to divert attention from the battle to retake Mosul. All this and more should have been anticipated. Daesh was never going to leave Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city and the last urban stronghold of the group in Iraq, without a fight and the coalition does now indeed have a fight on its hands. The families being taken from Mosul and surrounding villages are being used as human shields in what appears to be an apparent policy by Daesh to prevent civilians escaping.
In Kirkuk, Daesh snipers armed with assault rifles and explosive suicide vests, and those launching a series of suicide car attacks and roadside bombs, opened up a new front in the fight after launching an assault on government targets. Nearly 30 militants have taken over a building in southern Kirkuk and fired on security forces. A new conflict point in Kirkuk will spread Daesh fighters thin, as they now must fight on two fronts. But the same could easily be said of the Iraqi army.
Still, Iraqi and international analysts say the balance of forces on the ground definitely favors the coalition fighting Daesh. Daesh has an estimated 5,000-7,000 fighters in Mosul who are now surrounded by an estimated 70,000 troops. They include 3,000 soldiers from the Iraqi army who have been trained in counter-terrorism combat by US advisers. The coalition also enjoys massive superiority when it comes to defense equipment and control of the airspace above the city. The operation has also shown a remarkable display of national unity. For the first time in Iraq’s modern history, Iraqi army forces and Kurdish Peshmergas are fighting together in a major battle. Despite the balance of power being heavily in favor of Iraqi/coalition forces, a host of concerns will prevent too rapid an advance. Prime among them is the fate of civilians. The UN High Commissioner of Refugees anticipates that a million, or about two-thirds, of Mosul’s inhabitants could attempt to flee the city.
There are also fears that Daesh might resort to using chemical weapons. What happened to Iraq’s chemical arsenal when Daesh overran much of Iraq is not known. There are members of the former Iraqi army that have entered the Daesh command structure who have the know-how to use these weapons. There have also been a number of reports indicating that Daesh has managed to get control of some of these weapons. Most worrying are predictions that the battle for Mosul could drag on, increasing the prospects for such a scenario.
Recapturing Mosul, the last urban stronghold of Daesh in Iraq, is of huge symbolic and practical significance. It is the city in which Daesh declared its caliphate following the group’s 2014 blitzkrieg. From Mosul it expanded its territories toward Anbar and Fallujah but the loss of Mosul effectively ends Daesh’s presence in Iraq.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi says the battle to recapture Mosul is going quicker than planned. In fact, Iraqi-led forces have recaptured at least 100 square kilometers of territory. As such, the battle will be a definitive turning point. What it will probably not do is eradicate the radical ideas that produce the seemingly never-ending chain of terrorist organizations in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt. Nor can anyone predict the consequences that will follow when Daesh fighters are dispelled to other extremist breeding grounds such as Libya and sub-Saharan Africa.
In short, there is a big difference between defeating and eliminating Daesh and its affiliates.
