The photographs said it all. The two rival Venezuelan politicians shook hands and glared at each other like prizefighters who had just entered the ring. But this was not to be the start of a bare-knuckle fight between president Nicolas Maduro and Jesus Torrealba one of the opposition leaders who are ranged against him.
The deal on which they shook was that the government and the opposition would start a National Dialogue in nine days time. Mediated by a Vatican envoy, it is designed to head off a crisis that could plunge this already economically-crippled country into civil strife.
The United Socialist Party founded by the late president Hugo Chavez, who died of cancer in 2013, has been in power for 17 years. Chavez, a no-nonsense former paratroop sergeant, did much to reverse the financial inequalities that had disfigured Venezuela.
Deliberate redistributive policies struck at widespread poverty. The problem was that his socialist economics also hit the productive economy. Widespread nationalization aimed particularly at overseas investments drove away foreign capital. Meanwhile, state officials proved far from capable of running seized assets efficiently.
By the time Chavez died three years ago, the writing was already on the economic wall. Maduro, who is less charismatic than his old chief, has struggled to maintain any semblance of economic cohesion with his challenge made the greater by the collapse in oil revenues. As prices soared, there have been shortages of everything, including medicines. To emphasize the crisis, power cuts have become frequent.
The poor, once enthusiastic “Chavistas” who benefited from his policies, are ironically now the hardest hit. Attempts to soften the economic blows through further subsidies have only served to further undermine the government’s tottering financial position.
The present political crisis has occurred over a recall referendum that the opposition was entitled to seek in a three-stage vote once a president had served half his six-year term. Opposition parties had successfully completed stage one of the process obtaining signatures from one percent of voters in all of the country’s 24 states, amounting to around 200,000 people. The second stage required the collection of 20 percent of voters’ signatures in every state and this was to be done within three days. The final stage, the actual referendum to remove Maduro, would require the opposition to gain more than the 7.5 million votes than he won in 2013. But last month the electoral authorities decided that there had been fraud in the first stage and thus blocked the recall referendum.
The National Dialogue talks offer a chance for both sides to avoid escalating tensions. But it seems the largest compromises will have to come from Maduro, who must agree to unpick some of his bedrock socialist policies. Unfortunately, many in the opposition are not looking for a change of course, but a change of leader. The obvious answer is for the president to resign and call new elections. If he could combine with non-socialist parties to offer a program of reform and liberalization, he might still return to the Miraflores Presidential Palace. Providing the elections are free and fair, whatever the outcome Venezuelans might have a chance to start over. But the danger now is that left and right-wing politicians have become so bitterly polarized that there will be no one taking the moderate center ground.
