The political experts said it could never happen. The polls repeatedly said he was doomed to be defeated. The US media, almost without exception, first dismissed him, then mocked him and finally attacked him with considerable virulence. But yesterday Donald Trump won the White House.
Trump’s triumph threatens to upend so many US foreign policies that have been taken for granted that it is going to take a lot of time to figure out what happens next. Indeed, as the president-elect now turns to putting together his administrative team, it may not be all that clear, even to him, what change is going to happen and when.
For any politician there is a major step change between the campaigning for office and the actual winning and exercise of it. For Trump, this transition from the fiery hustings to the hot seat of power, is going to be even more radical, since the 45th president of the United States of America has never before held any elected office or ever been involved in the process of government.
Trump and his supporters made a great virtue of his total lack of experience. Part of his appeal is precisely that he is a complete outsider and is not a member of the US political ruling class. His pitch is that he will use the common sense values of business to run the country. That clearly resonated with voters who felt utterly let down by the US political establishment, and Hillary Clinton was a preeminent representative of that discredited elite.
But it will require a lot more than business deal making and Trump’s other widely known talents as the host of the Apprentice TV show to formulate and run US foreign policy. In among the many other awesome responsibilities that will shortly fall upon his shoulders, the conduct of America’s relations with the rest of the world, especially the Middle East, will be of crucial importance. Much will depend upon the team of foreign policy advisers that he assembles and the degree to which they are able to work with and direct the foreign policy professionals at the State Department.
During the campaign, Trump made many foreign policy references but few of them were explicit. Putting America first may have been too raw a slogan for the Clinton campaign to use but nobody expects any politician to do any the less for his or her country. But it is how US interests are allowed to have primacy in foreign policy formulation that is important. Trump has vowed to fight terrorism but he has given few specifics. In this respect, it will be instructive to see how he handles Iran. Will he continue Obama’s misconceived appeasement of Tehran in return for their temporary abandonment of their nuclear weapons program? Or will he respond to the now-dominant Republican legislators who demand that economic sanctions be reimposed?
Of equal significance will be President Trump’s view of Israel. During the fight for the nomination and the White House, Zionist lobbyists accused him of being an anti-Semite, a term that is thrown about in reference to anyone who even questions Israel’s behavior. Doubtless the expectation was that a Clinton presidency would continue with the generous and cozy US-Israeli relations. That assumption has been shattered. Will Zionists seek to suborn the Trump administration in some way or are they ready for early confrontations?
