The decision of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to run for a fourth term of office is even more good news now that the world faces the uncertainties of the Trump presidency. She has emerged as the preeminent world leader. Her vision, high moral sense and steadiness under sometimes withering political fire are sorely needed at a time when so many international factors, once taken as firm and settled, are suddenly seeming very far from fixed.
Merkel’s Christian Democrat party has received two major reverses in recent polls. The main beneficiary has been the Islamophobic, anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. In panic, party leaders have pressed Merkel to withdraw her welcome for over a million largely Syrian migrants in the course of this year. But Merkel has not been swayed.
Misbehavior by refugees, not least the deplorable New Year’s Eve attacks at Cologne railway station and attempted terror attacks seemed likely to betray her position. But in fact Merkel, “Mutti” as she is effectively known, remains by far Germany’s most popular politician with one recent poll giving her a 55 percent popularity rating.
For a leader who has been in the job for 11 years, that is a remarkable standing. Those who argue that her popular showing is a reflection of the limited alternatives for the chancellorship are almost certainly wrong. Merkel is not so strongly placed because her opponents are weak. She is strongly placed because she herself is strong. And at a time when Germany and the wider EU are suddenly faced with so many imponderables, her strength and her leadership seem indispensable.
The challenges she faces are considerable. The European Union and the single currency are both under pressure as never before. It is not just that the British have voted to leave. The Italians are about to hold a referendum that could see their country seek to quit the eurozone and maybe also the EU itself. On December 4, Austrians could choose as their new president Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party of Austria, whose Islamophobic polices are complemented with growing disenchantment with the EU and the single currency. Meanwhile, both Poland and Hungary have introduced far reaching administrative and legal changes which set them seriously at odds with the EU orthodoxy in Brussels.
Then there is France with a failed socialist president in Francois Hollande and the looming electoral presence of the neo-fascist National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Merkel will, however, have rejoiced at the primary defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy, which ought to have cleared the way for a reputable center-right candidate who can crush Le Pen.
And it is also important to understand the source of Merkel’s strength. That can best be grasped by realizing that the very thing that her opponents thought had made her weak actually demonstrated her great strength. Her open-arms welcome for the victims of the Syrian tragedy shamed the rest of the international community.
The perceived wisdom was that the political blowback from this astonishing act of humanity would be toxic. The reality is that even Germans who are alarmed at the strains that the refugees have imposed upon their well-ordered society are quietly proud of the decency and welcome their chancellor has displayed. In uncertain times, Merkel stands as a strong and unwavering beacon for sound judgment and values.
