One of the possible bright spots in the ascendancy of Donald Trump to the White House is his apparent, albeit sudden, keenness to find a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli problem. According to the US president-elect, “I would love to be able to be the one that made peace with Israel and the Palestinians… that’s the ultimate deal...”
Furthermore, Trump has suggested his son-in-law Jared Kushner could help broker such an agreement.
There is no evidence to suggest that either Trump or Kushner will succeed where all others have failed. No American president, at least from the time of Jimmy Carter and Camp David in the 1970s when Washington started to make serious efforts toward a resolution, has managed to clinch a deal. And a slew of long-time negotiators, including Aaron David Miller and Dennis Ross along with their state secretaries could not do the trick, the latest casualty being John Kerry whose efforts collapsed two and a half years ago.
The Palestinian-Israeli issue was more or less a non-issue in the recently concluded US presidential campaign. In the few times he did talk about the subject, Trump delivered contradictory messages. In one instance, he said he would be “neutral” in his attempt to promote the peace process. On another occasion, he said that he would not exert any pressure on Israel and would even allow as much settlement building as it wishes. Trump reaffirmed these sentiments during his AIPAC speech, saying the Palestinians “must come to the [negotiating] table knowing that the bond between the US and Israel is absolutely, totally unbreakable” and that “there is no moral equivalency” between both sides.
Aside from helping draft Trump’s AIPAC speech, Kushner brings very little credentials to the table. He is Jewish. Like his father-in-law, he is a real estate developer. He is the publisher of a New York newspaper. He and his family have ties, mostly financial, to the Israeli government and pro-Israel groups. He also served as a key adviser to Trump’s successful presidential campaign and is on his transition team. None of these serve as prerequisites for the mammoth task of finding a Palestinian-Israeli solution.
There is also the question of what kind of official role Kushner could play in a Trump administration as anti-nepotism laws in the US seemingly stand in the way.
The role the US has played in the past as neutral broker was never neutral but showed unmitigated preference given to Israel over the Palestinians. Trump will move to reaffirm this enormous support. In Israel, the right-wing camp celebrated Trump’s victory as the end of a Palestinian state and a green light to resume or accelerate building more settlements.
Syria, Iraq and Iran also appear to be higher on the US agenda, good news for Israel but bad for Palestinians.
In possibly selecting Kushner, 35, to help lead the effort, Trump would be turning to someone with no experience in government or foreign relations. Of course, time spent at the peace table has not exactly yielded peace. Kushner’s freshness and close ties to the incoming president could make him a valuable new player.
But for more than a generation, a Middle East peace deal has been one of the most elusive foreign policy goals for US presidents. Trump says he has reason to believe he can do it. He has surprised the world before.
