By David Dumke
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman is known as a decisive decision maker and that trait was certainly evident in the decision to not only host US President Donald Trump, but to orchestrate an amazing display of hospitality, diplomatic clout and strategic thinking. President Trump’s visit to Riyadh was memorable and enormously successful on a number of levels. Most importantly, the US-Saudi bilateral relationship, long a pillar of US and Saudi policy and regional stability, has been strengthened.
Much has been written about the tension that existed between the Kingdom and the administrations of Barack Obama and, to a less publicized extent, George W. Bush. In a chaotic and increasingly destabilized Middle East, neither Administration was able to sell its policies in a manner that addressed Riyadh’s concerns. Nor were they widely embraced by other key nations in the Arab and Islamic world. Washington was not on the same page on a host of key issues, including the invasion and failed reconstruction of Iraq, democratization and human rights, the chaos unleashed by the “Arab Spring”, and the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Improved dialogue with the Trump Administration, highlighted by the President’s visit, has turned a page in the relationship. While much of the substantive policy will need to be hashed out in the coming months, the Trump Administration and Riyadh are back on the same page. With the bilateral relationship on firmer footing, there is hope that many of the region’s most pressing challenges, including defeating Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS), containing Iran, and completing an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, will be addressed in a collaborative manner.
The list of wins from the visit is notable. Washington cinched the largest arms sale in history, justified by the need to provide the Kingdom with the tools it needs to fight terrorism and check Iran. Billions of dollars of business agreements between Saudi and American companies allow President Trump to claim success in his efforts to create jobs. The President’s conciliatory approach to Islam, emphasizing unity, will help calm Muslim nerves frayed by earlier pronouncements. Saudi confidence in Washington has been restored. The arms deal provides Riyadh with needed weaponry, and other agreements expand security cooperation on multiple levels. Active American support and participation in the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 were secured. Accord on dealing with Iran was reestablished and coordination on the war on terrorism was enhanced.
All these notable gains aside, it would be wise to inject a note of caution about expectations and the political realities. The Saudi investment in Trump is substantial and will yield short-term benefits. But how it will play out in the long term is much less certain. The reality is that in American politics, it is extremely difficult to convert one-time events, and even agreements, into lasting policy changes. It is even more difficult to do so with an embattled Administration.
Political impotence at home hinders a President’s ability to conduct foreign affairs. Donald Trump left Washington embroiled in scandal, and the black cloud over the Russian investigation and firing of FBI Director James Comey is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. The President’s approval ratings are lower than any of his predecessors, and his undisciplined White House, antagonism toward the media and propensity to embolden his critics in Congress, all suggest growing political weakness. It is far too early to determine how events will unfold, but profound unpopularity and loss of political clout could paralyze the Trump political agenda. Democrats smell blood and congressional Republicans are fearful of electoral blowback.
American presidents do not win by openly waging war against the press. Yet Donald Trump’s battle against the “fourth branch” continues to escalate. Antipathy colors coverage of the President and drowns out policy messages. Thus the reviews of the Riyadh visit were decidedly mixed. The press noted the President’s conciliatory approach to Islam and his pronouncement of a regional strategy that prioritizes the threats from Daesh and Iran. But they also rebuked him for lacking specific plans on almost all key issues, including Palestine, Yemen, Syria and Libya. And the President received considerable opprobrium for downgrading human rights.
It was not the Gettysburg Address, but the President delivered an adequate if not good speech that resonated with his audience. But given the prevailing political climate in Washington, it failed to resonate in the United States. It will, in fact, be difficult for the President to be heard on any substantive matter, even on an issue as important as terrorism, in the midst of the unfolding scandal.
Trump’s toxicity does not change the fact that he is president, and as such is a very important partner for Saudi Arabia. But Riyadh should recognize the potential repercussions of investing so heavily in him. Should Trump continue to be bogged down by scandal, his policies may not be implemented. There is also a guilt-by-association factor to consider, with Saudi Arabia being criticized for giving such a lavish welcome to President Trump at an inauspicious time. Democrats complained about the cool reception afforded to President Obama during his last visit to Riyadh. And Saudi Arabia’s Washington critics used the occasion to highlight their familiar list of complaints.
This does not diminish what was accomplished. Saudi Arabia succeeded in resetting US-Saudi bilateral relations. The visit was not only good public relations, but it also resulted in important agreements on the security, economic and cultural levels. These agreements build on a 70-plus year foundation, and could set the tone for the coming decades. But the relationship will always be bigger than any individual. And, unfortunately, President Trump’s problems could undo and diminish some of the progress made in Riyadh.
David Dumke is a veteran analyst on US-Arab relations. He teaches political science at the University of Central Florida. Follow him on Twitter @dtdumke
