WITH no fewer than four investigations looking into his affairs and a possible indictment on the horizon, it is safe to assume Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot survive the cases piling up against him. The graft probes are varied but amount to allegations Netanyahu granted financial or other benefits to businessmen in exchange for gifts or favors. So far, three of the people closest to Netanyahu have signed agreements with the police and the attorney general’s office to testify against their former boss in exchange for reduced sentences. With so much going against him, Netanyahu looks like he is acting on borrowed time and that he will ultimately follow in the footsteps of his predecessor Ehud Olmert and go to jail, the second Israeli prime minister to end up in prison.
Then there is the one man who could start Netanyahu’s burial proceedings, Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit who has the power to indict the prime minister. Mandelblit is apparently so sure of Netanyahu’s eventual fate that he has been thinking out loud that Netanyahu should resign if he is indicted on the corruption charges. An Israeli TV report said Mandelblit personally wants Netanyahu to resign if he is charged but stressed this is not his official legal position — although it might as well be.
If Netanyahu is indicted, there are only two courses he can take: call early elections or step aside. Since it is highly unlikely he will just leave after a total of 12 years in office, Netanyahu is currently deliberating whether to call early elections for June and not wait until November 2019. If elections are held early, Netanyahu hopes to come out of them stronger than ever. That could happen. Recent polls show Likud winning 29 seats, its strongest showing since the 2015 election, in which it won 30 seats.
It is a paradox that the criminal investigations closing in on Netanyahu have actually boosted his standing in the polls. But Israel has never had a premier like Netanyahu who is still a powerful figure among the public in general and among Likud supporters in particular. The worse his legal situation becomes, the higher his poll numbers rise. Holding a snap election in three months, when his status in the polls is excellent and before it is decided whether to indict him for the various scandals, could send him back to the Knesset as a winner for the fifth time. June seems like the perfect time for an election since it will precede Mandelblit’s anticipated decision to indict Netanyahu.
If Netanyahu is straining under the weight of the investigations against him, he didn’t show it when he addressed AIPAC’s annual policy conference. His 30-minute address to the crowd, of some 18,000 people, steered completely clear of divisive issues. He did not talk about the Palestinians but about the "historic" White House decision to designate Jerusalem as Israel's capital, a major diplomatic coup for Netanyahu but one which has enraged the Palestinians and which has effectively killed any future prospects for a Palestinian state. That didn’t seem to bother either the crowd or Netanyahu.
Netanyahu knows that even if there is an election and he comes out stronger, it will not stop the investigations from proceeding full steam ahead. The number of Knesset seats or popularity in the polls and the police investigations and criminal activities are unrelated.
Netanyahu could remain in power after fresh elections even with the investigations hanging over him. He is not required to resign if indicted, only if he is convicted. But he also knows that even though the law does not address this scenario, there has never been a prime minister who remained in office while being tried for criminal activity in all of Israel’s history. But again, there has never been somebody like Netanyahu.
