REFLECTING on the international expulsions of Russian diplomats, a US commentator drew a comparison with Sunday’s appalling mall fire in Kemerovo, Siberia, suggesting that as a result of the Skripal nerve gas attack in the UK, President Vladimir Putin found himself trapped inside a burning foreign policy.
Over and above the bad taste — at least 64 people, including 41 children perished in the mall blaze — Putin is very far from trapped and probably does not believe this international display of anger, started by the UK and now followed the United States and some 20 other countries, will last for very long.
Russia is still denying vigorously that it had anything to do with the nerve agent attack and has demanded the British send samples. This London has not done this. But last week experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) arrived in the UK to test samples themselves. They are not expected to come up with results before a fortnight. Since 1997, Russia has been a member of the OPCW, having signed the Chemical Weapons convention banning these toxic substances. It could therefore very reasonably request access to the test findings.
In the West, few have expressed any surprise that the international community should have moved before the definite results had been produced. The British were in no doubt that they had discovered the banned nerve agent Novichok, though since some UK sources claimed this substance had not been seen before. Therefore it is puzzling it could nevertheless be identified.
Russia has already expelled 23 UK diplomats in retaliation for the expulsion of the same number of its own diplomats from London. Now it looks as if the Kremlin will be sending home more than a hundred other foreign envoys in response to US-led international expulsions. The round of diplomatic parties in Moscow is likely to be much reduced. Most countries have followed London and Washington’s lead by saying the Russian diplomats being sent home were actually spies. Of course no one in the West is admitting that any of their expelled envoys were remotely associated with espionage.
However, beyond the mutual diplomatic expulsions, it remains to be seen how this serious row is going to affect Russia’s relations with the West. The argument from London and Washington is that this latest attack on Russian enemies abroad is the straw that broke the camel’s back. The Kremlin cannot continue to conduct a campaign of foreign and indeed domestic murder against those who have challenged and displeased it. The London murder of former spy Alexander Litvinenko produced clear evidence of Moscow’s involvement. Litvinenko was poisoned with highly radioactive polonium. The two Russians carrying it left an astonishing radiation trail from and back to Moscow. The Kremlin has never produced an explanation, only an outright denial of involvement.
Effectively, Putin’s very public death threats against “traitors” have now been challenged by the outside world. He is not a man given to backing down. His image as an all-powerful autocrat in the mold of the Tzars before him, would be damaged if he fessed up and promised he would prevent any such “unauthorized” attacks in future. He might even be tempted into another demonstration of Russia’s long and vengeful arm. But the wiser course, would be to quietly ensure that from now on, Russian agents abroad behaved themselves.
