Will Iran’s ayatollahs survive until next year’s 40th anniversary of the revolution that brought them to power? As the tide of protest at the collapsing living standards once again rises across the country, with major demonstrations this week in Tehran, it is clear that the only achievement that Iran’s rulers will have to celebrate will be four decades of failure.
Whatever else the regime offers to its citizens as evidence of its success, so much depends on their prosperity. As President Bill Clinton impatiently told the group of policy wonks working on his campaign to retain the White House: “It’s the economy, stupid”. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may cherish the notion that he is playing to nationalist sentiments with his nuclear weapons program and his aggressive foreign policy toward Iran’s Arab neighbors, but national pride does not put bread on the table. And anyway, most Iranians deplore the isolation into which the ayatollahs have plunged their country. Though the economic consequences have been dire, there have also been considerable lost opportunities for beneficial relationships with other peoples beyond Iran’s borders.
The currency has collapsed by 30 percent so far this year, weakening significantly after President Trump tore up the 2015 Geneva nuclear deal vowing from this August to restart sanctions. Like all regimes in economic trouble, Tehran tried to stop the run on the rial by unifying the black market and official exchange rates, with grave penalties for any further unofficial trades. Yet despite its dollar earnings from its oil sales, the government has been unable to meet demand for foreign currency. This clearly has a lot to do with the vast expense of its aggressive foreign policy - Iran has reportedly spent $9 billion propping up the Assad dictatorship in Syria. The cost of sustaining the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen has been hardly less considerable. In addition the ayatollahs have spent hundreds of millions on their nuclear weapons program. And then there are the generous handouts to the regime’s internal supporters, particularly the Revolutionary Guards.
The top commander of this elite body, whose job is to keep the regime in power, warned that any concessions to the US would be “treason”. He added that giving in to Washington would spell the “death of the Islamic revolution”.
Many would say that the 1979 revolution is already dead and has been for years. History may yet show that it was only Saddam Hussein’s attack on Iran in 1980 that enabled the revolution to survive. That terrible eight-year conflict allowed the ayatollahs to wrap themselves in the flag and cement their rule with endless calls for patriotism and sacrifice.
But no one is attacking Iran now. Instead it is Iran that is doing the attacking. And many Iranians have had enough. Youth unemployment is edging towards 30 percent. Poverty and hardship are widespread. The last Shah of Iran kept himself in power with his own elite military formation backed up by the feared Savak secret police. But in the end these buttresses melted away in the face of massive popular protest. Leading the huge demonstrations in Tehran were the bazaaris, the merchants who had had enough of autocracy. This week, the bazaaris were once again prominent among the furious crowds. Are the ayatollahs now about to follow the Shah into oblivion?
