IN what was clearly an orchestrated move, the United States along with Canada, the European Union and no less significantly, seven South American states, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina and Paraguay have recognized Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country’s legitimate president.
On Wednesday Guaido held an inauguration ceremony as vast anti-government crowds filled the streets of the capital Caracas. Beleaguered left-wing president Nicolas Maduro promptly broke off diplomatic relations with Washington and gave American diplomats 72 hours to quit the country. The Trump administration, however, vowed that they were not only staying but would now only deal with Guaido and the National Assembly he leads, which was elected in 2016.
For those who care to admit it, this week’s developments in Venezuela, with its hyperinflation and economy in free fall, sound very much like the decisive and dangerous click of a gun being cocked. The protesters thronging the streets may have been jubilant at the US-led move and Guaido’s elevation, but they should, as the Chinese saying goes, be careful what they wish for.
The dreadful reality is that Venezuela may very well now be standing on the brink of a civil war. The combative President Donald Trump is hoping that this week’s developments will force Maduro to quit, along with the doctrinaire socialists, some of whom are nevertheless notably corrupt, who have helped drive the country’s economy into a wall. Maduro’s predecessor, the charismatic former paratrooper Hugo Chavez set out to right blatant wrongs which had left financial and political power in the hands of a relatively small elite. Hardly surprisingly, there was massive popular support for the income redistribution policies that Chavez initiated. But governments can only pay out what they earn and Venezuela’s national income nose-dived because of nationalizations and inept interference in the country’s key foreign currency earner Petróleos de Venezuela.
Maduro has neither the rhetoric nor the vision of Chavez. His insistence on unsustainable economic policies, including ever-more generous hand-outs to the country’s poorest communities, meant government printing presses went into overdrive, churning out new banknotes which lost more and more value every day. Thus, even the once-solid support of low-income earners eventually drained away as prices rose inexorably and less and less basic goods became available in the stores. There are reports that red-shirted participants in pro-government demonstrations this week, actually had to be bussed in from surrounding areas and were promised goodie-bags of food. In the event Maduro supporters outnumbered many times by those backing the opposition.
What the armed forces now do will be crucial. Once strong champions of Chavez and his reforms, rank and file members, even if their units are well-looked after, know the daily struggle of friends and family to survive in the midst of economic collapse. Some formations may stay loyal. Others might go over to the opposition. At this point civil conflict could break out with potentially terrible loss of life.
By forcing the issue, Trump and his international allies have effectively left no other options open. With his people in revolt and three of his four neighboring states openly hostile, Maduro looks to be on the ropes. But then so too did the dictator Bashar Assad when in 2011 Syrians rose up to try and end his corrupt and despotic rule.
