In an unusual bout of frankness, the regime in Tehran has announced it is no longer sticking to the terms of the 2015 Geneva nuclear agreement. In reality, despite the investigations of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, there has been good intelligence that hardly had the ink dried on the laughably named “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” Iran was flouting its terms.
The much-vaunted agreement to lift sanctions saved Iran from imminent economic collapse. It was supposed to be Barack Obama’s big foreign policy triumph. It was in fact a disaster. Secretary of State John Kerry was bamboozled by Tehran’s negotiators. France, Germany and the UK wanted the deal so they could profit from desperately-needed contracts to rebuild Iranian infrastructure, not least its creaking oil industry. Russia and China went along with the agreement to end sanctions because they themselves appreciate and are now finding out how damaging Washington-led economic and financial restrictions can be.
It was always clear that the Geneva accord was not “joint” since the ayatollahs had no intention of sticking to it. Nor was it “comprehensive” since the Obama administration threw away the powerful lever it had to force Tehran to end its violent interference in the affairs of its Arab neighbors, not least Washington’s loyal allies in the Gulf. It was though “a plan” but that was what it remained - a lofty screed of fine words that actually signified nothing. And as for “action” by the Iranian regime, there were largely cosmetic visits by IAEA inspectors. The real “action” came from European businessmen who piled onto Tehran flights and brought a sudden influx of occupancy for the capital’s best, albeit run-down, hotels.
In his inimitable way President Trump cut to the chase, tore up the Geneva accord and reimposed sanctions. Last month he did away with the waivers that allowed selected countries, including China and Turkey, to continue to buy Iranian oil. They will now have to resort to the smuggling networks created by George W. Bush after Tehran refused to abide by a 2006 UN Security Council resolution demanding it halt the enrichment of nuclear fuel, a prerequisite for atomic warheads.
The key issue for the ayatollahs is not the smuggling. Their sanctions busting was almost exclusively aimed at sustaining the comfort and loyalty of their supporters, not least the Revolutionary Guards. Their long-suffering ordinary citizens must now endure the consequences of renewed economic isolation. But the regime has twice seen popular unrest explode onto the streets. It has not forgotten how the tidal wave of demonstrations in the 1979 revolution swept away the Shah’s armed forces and even his feared and hated Savak secret police.
This week’s threats against the interests of the United States and its allies preceded Tehran’s revelation that it was indeed welching on the Geneva nuclear accord. It was clearly carefully choreographed. The idea is to steal another page out of the playbook of North Korea’s “Little Rocket Man” Kim Jong-un. Threaten, then pretend to negotiate, then threaten some more, while all the time pressing on with the development of nuclear armaments. This is only going to end badly, first for the cowered and pauperized ordinary Iranians but ultimately for the ayatollahs and their brutal enforcers.
