OPEC expects India’s oil demand to rise to more than 10mbd by 2045

Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

NEW DELHI/VIENNA — India's oil demand is expected to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, accounting for about 40 percent of the overall increase in global demand during the period, OPEC's secretary general said on Tuesday.

"India is projected to see the largest additional oil demand (3.7 percent per annum) and the fastest growth in the period to 2040," said Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Barkindo has said India’s enthusiasm and encouragement for the producer-consumer dialogue has contributed enormously to the success that has been achieved in helping to restore stability to global oil markets in 2017-2019, and then again given the unprecedented downturn in 2020.

Barkindo speaking at the ‘Interaction with Global Oil & Gas Leaders’ session of the India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, via video conference on Monday evening praised India’s outreach, and its openness to explore ways to further enhance collaboration with OPEC, and to work together to address a variety of key energy issues, such as energy security and energy access.

“This is not only through our excellent OPEC-India Energy Dialogue that began in 2015 and has become more valuable with each passing year, but also other fora. For example, through the G20 platform, with India’s support for the stabilizing market role of OPEC and the Declaration of Cooperation participants at G20 Energy Minister Meetings in 2020”

India has become a global economic powerhouse, accounting for 16% of the global economy by 2045, double that of today, he said, adding, India’s oil demand is forecast to rise from 4.7 mb/d in 2019 to 10.7 mb/d by 2045, with its global share rising from 5.2% to 10.8% by 2045.

India today imports around 80% of its oil from OPEC and this level is expected to stay relatively stable in the period to 2045, and our member countries are forging ever-closer investment ties with your great country, he added.

OPEC also supports India’s visionary plans for the energy transition, and the role of oil and gas in this, as well as the huge success it has had in in expanding energy access to all corners of India. This is testament to the country’s socioeconomic progress and commitment to sustainable development.

He added that the global oil sector needed $11 trillion in investment to meet future demand by 2040. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 million bpd from 2017 to 111.7 million bpd in 2040, OPEC said in its latest report, issued in September.

Barkindo said consumers including India have expressed concerns on the outlook for supply. "Our view is that the market is currently adequately supplied and well balanced. For 2019, there is the potential for an imbalance, due to larger growth in supply," he said.

Barkindo's views echoed those of Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of French oil and gas group Total, who said on Tuesday that he expected demand for crude to be lower and supply to be higher in 2019. — Agencies