In recent weeks, European nations have been grappling with a shifting geopolitical reality: the United States, under President Donald Trump’s influence and perhaps again in the near future, appears increasingly insistent that Europe should manage its own fate and shoulder the consequences of its choices. This stance is hardly surprising—Trump has long expressed frustration over what he perceives as America’s disproportionate burden in defending a continent unwilling to invest adequately in its own security.
At the same time, as European leaders champion their support for Ukraine and call for strategic autonomy, it is as though the continent is telling itself, in that familiar, world-weary voice: “Let me be.”
Should this divergence continue over the next four years, it will reshape not only transatlantic relations but also the broader dynamics of the war in Ukraine.
Voices advocating for European independence from Washington are growing louder, particularly in Britain and Germany. But it is France that seems most eager to redefine its global role. Seeking to compensate for diminishing influence—especially in Africa, where recent military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have ousted pro-French governments and expelled French forces—France now finds itself on the defensive. Its sway has been eclipsed by the rise of Russian influence via the Wagner Group, and by China’s expanding presence on the continent.
In response, France is working to strengthen ties with more stable African nations, such as those in the eastern Sahel and Senegal, while also attempting to boost its economic and political footprint in Asia and Eastern Europe.
Yet even as President Emmanuel Macron dreams of a “new Europe,” he and his European allies may be underestimating just how much the international order has changed. The next four years, particularly if Trump returns to office, could see some of the most difficult transatlantic tensions yet.
The friction is already evident. Macron, along with German leaders and to a lesser extent British officials, has openly clashed with Trump over NATO. The US president has repeatedly criticized Europe for not meeting defense spending commitments and has even suggested the U.S. might not defend NATO members that fail to “pay their share.” Such rhetoric has shaken European confidence in Washington’s reliability as a long-term strategic ally.
France and Germany have responded by pushing for a more autonomous European defense posture, a concept Macron has called “strategic independence.” His vision for Europe diverges sharply from Trump’s on several fronts: defense, climate change (with Trump having pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement), and multilateralism, which Macron champions even as Trump has embraced unilateral action.
Meanwhile, it's important to recall that NATO's eastward expansion after the Cold War was perceived by Russia as a grave provocation. Many analysts argue that this expansion, viewed by Moscow as a direct threat, played a role in igniting the Ukraine conflict—particularly as Ukraine's potential NATO membership crossed what the Kremlin considers a red line.
Ultimately, the path forward is murky. The prospect of stability in Europe, and indeed in the broader global system, hinges on whether the continent can reconcile its aspirations for independence with the reality that great powers—whether American, Russian, or Chinese—continue to shape the world in which Europe must find its place in the sun.
