BANGKOK – A court in Bangkok is due to rule on a case of lese majeste involving controversial billionaire and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

If found guilty, Thaksin could face up to 15 years in jail. The charge relates to an interview he gave to a South Korean newspaper ten years ago.

Thailand's lese majeste law forbids insulting its monarchy. But critics say it is often used to target activists and political opponents.

The verdict comes as Thaksin's daughter, suspended PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, faces a court case that may see her removed from office. The legal cases have been seen as a big blow to the Shinawatra clan, which has dominated Thai politics for decades.

Thaksin's charge was originally filed by the then-military government in 2016, when he was in exile, and re-activated last year after his return to Thailand.

At first glance the case against him seems weak.

In the South Korean newspaper interview, the former prime minister said he believed the 2014 military coup which deposed the elected government of his sister Yingluck - just as he had been deposed by a previous coup in 2006 - had been instigated by "some people in the palace" and members of the privy council, the 19-member body which advises the Thai king.

Technically the privy council is not covered by the lese majeste law, which states that it is an offence to defame only the king, queen, heir to the throne or anyone acting as regent.

However, in recent years the law has been invoked to criminalise any action or statement which might reflect negatively on the monarchy as an institution.

In the past people have been prosecuted for making unfavourable comments about the late King Bhumibol's dog and about a Thai king from the 16th Century.

More recently, a young woman was sentenced to five years in prison for placing a banner criticising the budget to help those affected by Covid close to a portrait of King Vajiralongkorn.

The interpretation of the law has become so broad that human rights groups now view it as a political tool, which can be used to intimidate and silence those who challenge the status quo.

Many believe this is what is happening to Thaksin.

This verdict comes exactly two years after the former prime minister's dramatic return from 15 years of exile.

At the time it was assumed there had been a grand bargain struck between Thaksin and his long-time conservative adversaries, so that his party Pheu Thai, which in the 2023 election had been relegated to second place from its usual number one spot, could form a coalition government and keep the young reformists who had actually won the election out of power.

The terms of that bargain have never been made public – Thaksin has always insisted there was no deal – but it is likely they included an agreement that he would keep a low profile and stay out of politics.

But a low profile is something completely alien to the flamboyant, wealthy and ambitious tycoon.

He is still believed to be the largest funder of Pheu Thai and makes all of the main decisions for the party.

When his first choice of prime minister, businessman Srettha Thavisin, was disqualified by the persistently interventionist Constitutional Court a year ago, Thaksin's inexperienced daughter Paetongtarn took the helm, becoming Thailand's youngest ever prime minister.

A self-described "daddy's girl", she said she would happily take his advice. As she took office Thaksin announced his "Vision for Thailand", including a controversial proposal to legalise casinos; much of that subsequently became official policy.

The parliamentary opposition has accused the Shinawatra family of running a "dual leadership". Thaksin's business ties to the Cambodian strongman Hun Sen also raised concerns over how firmly his government would defend Thailand over the border dispute between the two countries.

This came to a head in the private phone conversation leaked by Hun Sen in which Paetongtarn was heard referring to him as "uncle", and criticising her own army commander on the border, for which she has now been suspended by the Constitutional Court.

What happens to Thaksin in court today, and what happens to his daughter when she faces the final verdict of the Constitutional Court in a week's time, probably depends on what role Thailand's traditional power brokers, close to the palace and the military, believe they should now play.

Losing another prime minister after just a year, at a time of great global uncertainty, might be judged too risky. Even if he is found guilty Thaksin could stay out of prison on bail while he appeals.

But he faces further court cases later this year. And the price for him being allowed to stay out of jail may be that his party calls an early election, at a time when its poor performance in government could result in it losing many of its seats in parliament. – BBC