Reading attempt
Reading attempt
December 28, 2015 | 12:00 AM
Hussein Shobokshi
3 minute read
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ResizeHussein Shobokshi
2015 was a strange and weird year filled with incidents that are difficult to understand and perceive. What about 2016?
The following lines are not a practice of astrology or fortunetelling, but an attempt to analyze, interpret and read incidents between what had happened and what is expected to happen.
America, the most powerful country in the world, is on the verge of an important presidential election with topics like terrorism and immigration dominating the scene.
It is expected that the political media will move towards a tense message in our escalated tone. Furthermore escalating the political discourse, in spite of its economy's growth and improved performance, is needed.
Such a political message can take its "verbal" toll without affecting any of the American earnings. It is not expected from Obama administration to have the ability of taking any big decisions in view of entering the out of action and final period of its presidential term. Thus, there will be no sudden or shocking decisions.
The Syrian crisis will find a quick political solution next year. Because the "outcome" of extremism taking place there has become a danger that threatens the entire world and can never stay as it is.
The solution will basically be in the hands of the Russians, because they are the force on the ground, but they know that they cannot keep Al Assad on top of the regime, as he has no legitimacy among his people and the international community.
Europe will witness and important transformation on its investment, asylum, residence and immigration laws.
Such transformation will be strongly reflected in the form of quick uprising of conservative, racial and extreme groups.
Europe will take a set of firm and strong actions under the cause of fighting terrorism, and such sharp actions will be met by a wide popular acceptance and endorsement.
Terrorism will be stronger, more intensive and expanding more likely to Asia and Latin America being "soft and not "tested" before. Therefore they could be targeted and intended weak points.
China will remain in a weak economic state keenly focusing on developing its local markets to change more than 350 million of its inhabitants into consumers to make for the shortfall of exports which witnessed a sharp fall, but that will limit China's appetite to expand in Asia and extend the points of impact to the Philippine, Vietnam and even Taiwan and Japan, especially with the cautious US military shrinkage and non desire for any confrontation.
The Russians economic situations will be revealed significantly, thanks to costs of sanctions, military interference in Syria and Ukraine and he huge drop in oil prices.
The unrest will remain in the Middle East; in Syria, Iraq and Yemen while Iran will deploy its cells in Bahrain, Kuwait and other areas. The stage's economic motto will be "re-shocking the spending engineering", decreasing of expenditure, provision of fund, opening the way for unprecedented diversification of income sources, entering the tax term into the transactions dictionary and a real application of the idea of subsidy removal.
It will be a year of unprecedented economic and security challenges and most importantly the rising of the terrorists groups must be controlled in all political, economic and religious levels, because the climate and ground will be more than ready to all of that.
The intention is not to form a dark or pessimistic picture, but the reality imposes itself. Hopefully it will be good year.