Nigerian president’s uphill reform struggle

Nigeria with its abundant reserves of oil and gas ought to be the wealthiest state in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ever since hydrocarbons were first discovered in commercial quantities in 1956, Nigeria has always had the chance of wealth and development. Until 1970 it fought a bitter three-year civil war to stop the oil-rich eastern region breaking away. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria has always seemed go-ahead and innovative, best epitomized perhaps by its vibrant Press and ingenious street traders. That Nigeria is not Africa’s wealthiest nation has just been driven home starkly by a Nigerian government request for emergency funding from the World Bank and the African Development Bank. The more telling fact is that the request is for a relatively modest $3.5 billion.  This all demonstrates the parlous state in which Nigeria finds itself. Through a combination of factors, including bad management, despairing foreign oil companies, lack of reinvestment and sheer incompetence, oil output has dropped by a million barrels a day. In December, Angola overtook Nigeria to become Africa’s biggest oil producer. And given the collapse in the oil price, the country’s finances are in ruins. None of this of course would have happened had it not been for half a century in which successive governments have almost all plundered the oil and gas revenues, either as these arrived or after they had been put aside in special funds that were supposed to take care of Nigerians when the oil finally runs out. When ruled by a kleptocracy, there is hardly any motive for ordinary citizens to behave honestly themselves. Thus the dozens of Internet scams, the car thieves in the middle of Lagos who dress as police to stop and hijack vehicles, the bureaucrats and officials who will not do their duty unless they are given money, and the army that has been so badly officered and trained and equipped that it runs away in the face of a few manic Boko Haram thugs. This is the financial and moral mess that former general Muhammadu Buhari is struggling to address. On paper he may have the executive powers to carry the job through, but the reality is that his reforms face an obdurate establishment reluctant to give up its profitable ways. As a respected army officer, who was last president when he seized power in a coup, Buhari has a chance to overhaul the decayed and inefficient army. For this he is receiving the eager help of outside military, particularly the Americans and British. But there is less international appetite to help address economic and infrastructural mess.  A power station on the edge of Lagos is a fine exemplar of what went wrong. Built in the 1980s the power plant never reached design capacity and soon started breaking down. Money for training, spare parts and even salaries was going missing. The World Bank launched a project to restore the turbines which were only three years old. The power station came back on line but within 18 months, lousy management, lack of maintenance and theft of funds and equipment meant it was back where it started. The tragedy is that no one was ever held responsible for this criminal neglect.  No one ever is. Until Buhari makes officials and politicians recognize that there are serious personal consequences for their short-sighted criminal greed, little seems likely to change.