The Mosul Dam danger

As many as 1.5 million people could lose their lives if Iraq's massive Mosul Dam collapses as engineers now fear. Remedial work on the dissolving substrate on which the dam is built will take an Italian firm 18 months to complete and some experts are warning that even this will be a medium-term fix at best. Originally known as the Saddam Dam, it was built on the River Tigris in five years to hold back 11.1 cubic kilometers of water. The problem from the beginning was that it was being constructed on soluble gypsum. The German firm that won the $1.5 billion contract, which included a 750MW hydroelectric plant, wanted to sink a curtain of grouting above the dam site to protect the soluble gypsum on which it was to sit.  Under pressure from Saddam Hussein, that plan was abandoned before work began in 1981 in favor of a speedier grouting method. Thus the seeds of a potentially devastating collapse were sown more than 35 years ago. The prestigious Saddam Dam, the fourth largest in the Middle East, was in fact a disaster waiting to happen. The precautions that are being urged on the Iraqis by the Americans in particular are mind-boggling. A fact sheet issued this week by the US embassy in Baghdad says that Mosul could be drowned in up to 21 meters of water within as little as one hour of the dam failing. The city, which before it was overrun by terrorists of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS), had a population of around 2.5 million, would suffer catastrophic flooding. Meanwhile, half a million people living further down the Tigris would be at serious risk. The populations of Tikrit and Samarra would have to move up to 6.5 kilometers away from the river to be safe. Even Baghdad could be hit with the distinct possibility that the capital’s airport could be flooded. It is being projected that the standing water could remain for weeks, if not indeed months. Rather oddly, having published the details of this alarming scenario, the Americans have said  that they have “no specific information that indicates when a breach might occur”.  But they add that proper preparation of evacuation plans will save lives.  However, there is a lack of realism here that must be overcome. By its very nature, the Tigris valley is intensively cultivated by tens of thousands of farmers. Their crops, their livestock and their homes cannot be suddenly packed up and moved to higher ground. If the dam collapses, these agriculturalists will lose far more than the town dwellers who will be affected. In fact, they will lose absolutely everything. Now, therefore, is the time to be planning for the worst. Schemes need to be put in place that will allow the farmers to return to their holdings as quickly as possible. They will need temporary housing. They will need heavy equipment to clear and cleanse their land. And they will need new livestock and new crops to plant and they will need money to survive in the short-term and rebuild the lives that will have been washed away.  Everyone must hope that over the next 18 months, while the Mosul dam is being made safe, the worst will not happen. But the evacuation plans the Americans are urging must also include well-considered provisions for tackling the destruction if it does.