Russia’s Iranian mistake

RUSSIA’s delivery of defensive missiles to Iran is a dangerous step that further empowers the Tehran regime in its largely successful defiance of the international community. The first consignment S-300 long range surface-to-air missiles has begun, as part of an $800 million contract originally signed with Moscow in 2007. International sanctions persuaded the Russians to suspend the deal but with their lifting last year, Putin has decided to go ahead with the supply. The delivery of these mobile systems means Iran is now capable of defending its nuclear sites for bomber or missile attack. It is unclear if the S-300s Tehran is receiving come from the Russia’s existing stockpile or are being specially built. Production of the missile, which began in 1979 ended officially in 2011. It is regarded as one of the world’s most effective defense systems and was designed to take out cruise missiles as well as more conventional aerial attacks. Sanctions ended because of Iran promised to stop work on enriching nuclear fuel to weapons grade and to accept inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency to prove this. There are two major flaws to this arrangement. The first is that it must be expected that sooner or later Iran will obstruct IAEA inspectors. There will then be protests led by Washington, followed by excuses, followed by threats and followed by then what — the reintroduction of international sanctions? The Geneva deal set no mechanism to throw a switch and once again isolate Iran financially and commercially. Such a switch was probably seen as unrealistic because international companies have piled into Iran to secure lucrative deals to rebuild the country’s decaying infrastructure, not least in its oil and gas industry. Likewise, with the removal of banking restrictions, the regime has been busy moving funds to banks in the likes of Russia and China, where they are unlikely to be frozen again. The second flaw is that protected by Russian S-300 missiles, the crucial nuclear sites will be far less open to attack, maybe even impregnable. Nor should it be forgotten that Iranians have agreed only to suspend their nuclear fuel enrichment for 15 years. Thus even if they were to honor this commitment, their renewed nuclear weapons program will be protected. Vladimir Putin blindsided the international community with his military intervention in Syria to save Assad from defeat. He may well be contemplating the same trick in Libya, supporting the east against the UN-backed government of National Accord  in Tripoli so promoting a decisive split in the country. Because Iran also sustains the Assad regime, Moscow doubtless feels it is arming an ally. But Putin is making a serious mistake if he thinks that he is securing Iran as a Russian sphere of influence. The regime in Tehran is simply not to be trusted. It will seek to maneuver Moscow into confrontation with the rest of the Arab world. The consequences of the subsequent rift would be serious. The only grain of comfort is that the S-300s have complex guidance systems. If the Russians have any sense, they will have left an undetectable backdoor in the missile programming that will enable them to sabotage them, because one day it could be a Russian attack from which a renegade Iranian regime may seek to defend itself.